Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

March 12, 2026 

According to data from the County Recorder’s Office by way of Fidelity National Title, the number of residential property sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast increased by 5% in February 2026, with 107 sales as compared with February 2025.  Of these 107 sales, there were 71 House or Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) sales, down from 76 in February 2025; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,975,000, down 26% from 2025, and the average sale price was $2,960,214, down 15% from 2025.  Of these 107 sales, there were 36 Condominium sales in February 2026, up from 26 in February 2025; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,975,000, down 23% from 2025, and the average sale price was $1,328,472, down 14% from 2025.

Carpinteria had 4 residential sales in February 2026, down from 12 in January.  There were 3 House/PUD sales, the same number of sales as in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,550,000, and the average price was $2,273,545.  There was 1 Condominium sale, down from 9 in January; the sale price of this Condominium sale was $1,515,000.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Carpinteria sale was a Condominium on Foothill Road @ $1,515,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Gobernador Canyon Road @ $2,840,635.

Summerland had no sales in February, down from 1 sale in January 2026.

Montecito had 12 residential sales in February 2026, up from 9 in January.  There were 9 House/PUD sales, up from 8 in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $3,750,000, and the average sales price was $5,893,889.  There were 3 Condominium sales, up from 1 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $3,460,000 and the average sale price was $3,086,667.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Montecito sale was a Condominium on Coast Village Road @ $2,050,000, and the highest-priced sale was an Estate on Para Grande Lane @ $14,500,000.

Santa Barbara had 57 residential sales in February 2026, up from 46 in January.  There were 38 House/PUD sales, up from 33 in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,997,500, and the average sales price was $2,543,673.  There were 19 Condominium sales, up from 13 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,125,000 and the average sale price was $1,237,579.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Santa Barbara sale was a Condominium on Miradero Drive @ $650,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Alameda Padre Serra @ $7,250,000.

Hope Ranch had 2 sales in February 2026, up from 0 sales in January.  The median and average sales price of these two Estate listings was $12,162,500.  There are no Condominiums in Hope Ranch.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Hope Ranch sale was an Estate on Via Esperanza @ $8,830,000 and the highest-priced sale was an Estate on Marina Drive @ $15,495,000.

Goleta had 32 residential sales in February 2026, up from 22 in January.  There were 19 House/PUD sales, the same number of sales as in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,465,000, and the average sales price was $1,543,421.  There were 13 Condominium sales, up from 3 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,020,000 and the average sale price was $1,041,231.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Goleta sale was a Condominium on Whimbrel Lane @ $720,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Camino Cerralvo @ $3,700,000.

Analysis

As of March 1^st in the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS), there were 171 available House/PUD listings (down from 178 on February 1^st) and 50 available Condominium listings (down from 53 on February 1^st) along the Santa Barbara South Coast.  The lack of  housing inventory available for sale has loosened up a bit since last year, but it has continued to put upward pressure on housing values.  Compare our current supply levels to the years 2007 through 2011, when the total number of available listings for Buyers to choose from fluctuated between 734 and 1,026.  Historically, the highest number of available listings along the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in June 1992, when there were an amazing 1,297 available!

While the number of days that listings stay on the market before entering escrow has risen, the competition among Buyers creating bidding wars has also diminished, although it has not totally disappeared.  According to the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales data, there were a total of 96 residential sales in February on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, up from 75 in January.  The County Recorder reported 107 total sales in February, indicating that 11 private sales did not register in the MLS.  Of the 96 MLS sales, 23% closed above the original asking price (up from 15% in January), 23% closed at the original asking price (up from 17% in January), and 54% closed for less than the original asking price (down from 68% in January).  After analyzing the February sales data, there were 3 listings (down from 5 in January) which sold $100,000+ over their original asking prices; these listings were Walnut Lane which sold $130,000 over asking price, Anacapa Street which sold $110,000 over asking price, and Hillsboro Street which sold $100,000 over asking Price.  Nationally, the percentage of sales over the asking price has hovered around 28% as compared to the South Coast of Santa Barbara’s 23% February ratio.  If you think Buyer competition is high in Santa Barbara, data from  COMPASS in the Silicon Valley shows that at least 40 homes sold for $200,000 or more above list price in February, including 17 homes that sold for $400,000 or more above list price.  Notably, one property in Los Gatos sold for $1,400,000 above asking price in just 8 days on the market, and two other homes sold for $900,000 more.  Multiple-offer bidding wars are fierce: one house attracted 25 offers in 8 days and 5 other properties received more than 10 offers each. 

Speaking of inventory levels, according to Anthony Smith’s National Housing Market Update March 5^th article:  “Though the number of homes for sale exceeds 2025 levels, providing homebuyers with more options, the pace of the inventory recovery has slowed significantly. Last year at this time, inventory was growing at a rate closer to 30% year over year. These single-digit growth rates are a welcome improvement, but seem a bit disappointing given the rapid inventory recovery over the past two years from historic lows.  The median home spent 68 days on the market this week, falling below 70 days for the first time since November, but coming in 5 days slower than this time last year. The slowdown in the market was a bit less pronounced this week than it has been so far in 2026, as mortgage rates just above 6% range make things a bit easier on buyers and may be breathing some life into the market.”  https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-february-28-2026/

Of the 107 residential sales in February 2026, 94 sold over $1,000,000, which equates to 88% of the total sales, up from 78% January.  The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate compared to other areas of the United States, but many people will pay more to live in Santa Barbara.  According to Property Shark’s survey, California had 7 of the 10 most expensive median-priced ZIP codes in the United States.  Montecito’s 93108 ZIP code came in at #5 with a median sale price of $6,995,000.  The #1 spot is held by Fisher Island (off the coast of Miami) where the median sale price is $11,925,000, which is 27  times higher than the U.S. median sale price. https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us/

Another verification of Santa Barbara’s popularity, no matter the cost, the New York Post’s survey ranked the most expensive cities in the US to visit as a tourist and the winner is #1 Aspen where a three-day trip for two costs $2,708!  Closely followed is #2 Santa Barbara where a three-day trip for two costs $2,446!  Filling out the top five on the list were Anchorage, Bar Harbor, and Fairbanks.  The last (#55) on the list and the least expensive tourist destination for vacationers was Clearwater where a three-day trip for two costs $1,630, 40% less than Aspen. https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/lifestyle/most-expensive-tourist-destinations-in-the-us-in-2025/

Another reason Santa Barbara is so sought after is its local educational system as University of California Santa Barbara ranked as #91 out of 2,250 universities worldwide, and Santa Barbara City College ranked #1 out of the 116 Community Colleges in California.

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings and 

https://bold.org/blog/best-community-colleges-in-california

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026, where officials are expected to discuss interest rates, following a pause in January at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.  The meeting will review economic conditions, inflation, and labor market data. With the Iran war and rising prices of gasoline, economists doubt there the Fed will lower rates anytime soon.  Powell noted that while consumers are gloomy in surveys, they are still spending at a healthy pace, helping propel the economy.  After three consecutive cuts in late 2025, the Fed is navigating a potential shift in strategy, with some officials focusing more on inflation.

Since the beginning of 2022, 30-year mortgage interest rates have doubled, but started easing downward in 2024, and are now 5.95% as of March 1^st 2026.  Due to the war in the  middle east, rates are much higher now on March 11^th.  Historically, the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in February 2021 at 2.65% and that low rate was matched in July 2021 during the COVID pandemic.  If Buyers are expecting 3% or even low 5% mortgage rates to return to buy a home, they are waiting for an anomaly and  should wait no longer.  The highest historical 30-year fixed-rate interest rate was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%. The average 30-year mortgage rate over the last 50 years has been 7.70%, so current rates are still well below that average.  Mortgage rates of 8.03% in October 2023 were at a 23-year high following all-time lows reached just three years before, highlighting the effect that financing costs have on the housing market.  A $913,100 loan in 1981 would have been $13,423/ month, the payment in June 2021 would have been $3,679/month, and now, as of March  1^st, that payment would be $5,445/month.  As an alternative to obtaining a mortgage, in February 2026, 44% of South Coast Buyers purchased in cash, up from 39% in January.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index eased to 36 in February of 2026 from 37 in the previous month, contrasting slightly with market expectations that it would improve to 38. It was the softest reading in five months, reflecting continued challenges in the US housing market. Builder sentiment deteriorated across most components of the index, with sales  expectations in the next six months dropping by three points to 46, while the traffic of positive buyers dropped two points to 22. In turn, current sales conditions remained unchanged at 41. The survey reported that 36% of builders cut prices in the period, 4 percentage points below the ratio in January.   https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index

As for the worldwide cost of living as of March 8^th, Expatistan compiled an index of 110 major worldwide metropolitan areas.  According to the index in the United States (and the world) the most expensive area to live in is #1 New York City with a @ 245 Price Index score (the least expensive gallon of regular gas costs $3.29/gallon in New York).  The least expensive in the United States is #87 Cedar Rapids, Iowa @ 83 ($2.99/gallon).  The lowest State average gas price in the United States is $2.96/gallon in Oklahoma.  Of the top 25 most expensive areas on the worldwide list, two are in California:  #5 San Francisco @ 204 ($4.49/gallon) and #11 San Diego @ 175 ($4.47/gallon).  According to the index, the least expensive area to live in the world is #110 Yogyakarta (Indonesia) @ 32 ($2.36/gallon).  Gas prices on the South Coast are as low as $4.39/gallon and are generally lower than in other California coastal areas.  A Chevron Station near LAX is charging up to $8.21/gallon!  In California, the most expensive average cost of gas is in Humboldt County @ $5.73 and  the least expensive is in Tuolumne County @ $4.89.  According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of gas in California is $5.16/gallon, while the National average is $3.45/gallon.  These gas prices have gone up dramatically since the start of the Iran war.  Expatistan’s Cost of Living Index is an interesting way to compare the cost of living in cities around the world.  https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index

On February 24^th The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 4.8 points to 72.0. The cutoff for preliminary results was February 17, 2026. “Confidence ticked up  in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”  https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Historically, the highest Year-to-Date median sale price on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500, but that high mark is now ancient history.  The median sale price of all residential 2026 sales Year-To-Date as of March 1^st was $1,675,000, down 11% from 2025 and the average sales price was $2,466,242.  While the median sale price had been hovering near 2007’s historic high for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019, it started its upward climb in 2020, accelerating in 2021 and into the first half of 2022 before leveling off throughout and declining 1% in 2023.  There have been no double-digit price increases in the median sales price since a 17% increase in 2020, 24% in 2021 and 15% in 2022.  The current 11% decrease in the median sales price has not been this low since a 14% decrease in 2009.

Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data, as of  March 1^st in the City of Santa Barbara, there were 65 active House/PUD listings (down from 70 on February 1^st) and 35 pending sales (up from 33 on February 1^st) which equates to a 1.7-month supply (down from 2.1 on February 1^st) of listings for Buyers to choose from in the City of Santa Barbara. Generally, a 1-month supply would indicate the listings would be sold within one month.  A less than 1-month supply of inventory indicates a feverish Seller’s market, a 1-to-2-month supply indicates a heated Seller’s market, and a 2-to-4-month supply is considered a basic Seller’s market where Buyer demand is still high, and inventory is scarce.  Historically, a 4-to-6-month supply of available inventory indicates a Balanced market.  More than a 6-month supply indicates a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful, with Buyers being slower to make decisions as they compare  numerous properties on the market.  Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data as of March 1^st, Carpinteria/Summerland has a 1.7-month supply (down from 2.2 on February 1^st), Montecito has a 4.3-month supply (down from 5.1 on February 1^st), Hope Ranch has a 2.7-month supply (down from 9.5 on February 1^st), and Goleta has a 1.1-month supply (down from 1.8 on February 1^st).  Carpinteria/Summerland has dropped into a heated Seller’s market.  Montecito remains in a Balanced market.  Santa Barbara has dropped into a heated Seller’s market.  Hope Ranch has moved up into a basic Buyer’s market.  Goleta remains in a heated Seller’s market.  With a combined total of 87 House/PUD pending sales (up from 68 on February 1^st) and 171 active listings (down from 178 on February 1^st) along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2-month supply (down from 2.6 on February 1^st) of House/PUD listings from which Buyers can choose.  By removing the 63 higher-valued House/PUD listings in Montecito and Hope Ranch and their 17 pending sales from the equation, there is only a 1.5-month supply (down from 2 on February 1^st) from which Buyers can choose along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County.  With a combined total of 23 Condominium pending sales (down from 29 on February 1^st) and 50 active listings (down from 53 on February 1^st), there is a 2.2-month supply (up from 1.8 on February 1^st) of Condominium listings from which Buyers can choose.

There are many concerns for Buyers and Sellers. These include the wars in Iran and Ukraine, continuing tensions in all of the Middle East, continued worldwide geopolitical tensions, inflation, insurance premium volatility, mortgage interest rates, health insurance rates, President Trump’s tariffs, continuing repercussions of the government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and how other administration economic policies are confusing to our trading partners.  Also, a major concern for Buyers and Sellers is the scarcity and cost of homeowners’ insurance coverage, especially since State Farm, Nationwide, Kemper, Marine America, Trans-Pacific, Allstate and others have refused to issue new policies in California and are not renewing existing home insurance policies.  Farmers Insurance has been restricting the number of new policies it offers since July 2023, but recently removed the cap on the number of new policies it will issue, but insurance still remains very expensive as compared to years past.  Now on March 12^th, the real wildcard is the possible effects the Iran war will have on inflation (gas prices), mortgage interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence.  At the moment, there is so much political and economic uncertainty that no one knows how it will impact the housing market.

California’s Proposition 19 allows homeowners aged 55+ to transfer their existing real estate tax base to a home anywhere in the State; this newer law may encourage some older Sellers who wish to sell their current homes and downsize.  The imbalance between Santa Barbara’s low housing supply and high demand is more pronounced than in most national cities, so over the years, there has been a surge in local property values.  While market corrections may still negatively impact property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast, the impact is expected to be less severe compared to many other areas in the state and country.  New 2026 listings may have remained on the market a bit longer than in 2024 and 2025, but they continue to sell.  Home values in the Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market continue to be supported by supply and demand dynamics due to our current market’s persistent low listing inventory; pre-pandemic House/PUD active listings in March 2019 totaled 485, and now, as of March 1, 2026, there are only 221 active listings, which is 46% lower than in 2019.

Review the attached list of the 107 properties sold on the Santa Barbara South Coast in February 2026, and contact me for information on specific sales in our area.

Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN

Compass

801 Chapala Street

Santa Barbara, CA 93101

805.689.2305

stan@stantabler.com

http://www.stantabler.com

CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980

Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

March 12, 2026 

According to data from the County Recorder’s Office by way of Fidelity National Title, the number of residential property sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast increased by 5% in February 2026, with 107 sales as compared with February 2025.  Of these 107 sales, there were 71 House or Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) sales, down from 76 in February 2025; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,975,000, down 26% from 2025, and the average sale price was $2,960,214, down 15% from 2025.  Of these 107 sales, there were 36 Condominium sales in February 2026, up from 26 in February 2025; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,975,000, down 23% from 2025, and the average sale price was $1,328,472, down 14% from 2025.

Carpinteria had 4 residential sales in February 2026, down from 12 in January.  There were 3 House/PUD sales, the same number of sales as in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,550,000, and the average price was $2,273,545.  There was 1 Condominium sale, down from 9 in January; the sale price of this Condominium sale was $1,515,000.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Carpinteria sale was a Condominium on Foothill Road @ $1,515,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Gobernador Canyon Road @ $2,840,635.

Summerland had no sales in February, down from 1 sale in January 2026.

Montecito had 12 residential sales in February 2026, up from 9 in January.  There were 9 House/PUD sales, up from 8 in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $3,750,000, and the average sales price was $5,893,889.  There were 3 Condominium sales, up from 1 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $3,460,000 and the average sale price was $3,086,667.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Montecito sale was a Condominium on Coast Village Road @ $2,050,000, and the highest-priced sale was an Estate on Para Grande Lane @ $14,500,000.

Santa Barbara had 57 residential sales in February 2026, up from 46 in January.  There were 38 House/PUD sales, up from 33 in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,997,500, and the average sales price was $2,543,673.  There were 19 Condominium sales, up from 13 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,125,000 and the average sale price was $1,237,579.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Santa Barbara sale was a Condominium on Miradero Drive @ $650,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Alameda Padre Serra @ $7,250,000.

Hope Ranch had 2 sales in February 2026, up from 0 sales in January.  The median and average sales price of these two Estate listings was $12,162,500.  There are no Condominiums in Hope Ranch.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Hope Ranch sale was an Estate on Via Esperanza @ $8,830,000 and the highest-priced sale was an Estate on Marina Drive @ $15,495,000.

Goleta had 32 residential sales in February 2026, up from 22 in January.  There were 19 House/PUD sales, the same number of sales as in January; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,465,000, and the average sales price was $1,543,421.  There were 13 Condominium sales, up from 3 in January; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,020,000 and the average sale price was $1,041,231.  In February 2026, the lowest-priced Goleta sale was a Condominium on Whimbrel Lane @ $720,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Camino Cerralvo @ $3,700,000.

Analysis

As of March 1^st in the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS), there were 171 available House/PUD listings (down from 178 on February 1^st) and 50 available Condominium listings (down from 53 on February 1^st) along the Santa Barbara South Coast.  The lack of  housing inventory available for sale has loosened up a bit since last year, but it has continued to put upward pressure on housing values.  Compare our current supply levels to the years 2007 through 2011, when the total number of available listings for Buyers to choose from fluctuated between 734 and 1,026.  Historically, the highest number of available listings along the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in June 1992, when there were an amazing 1,297 available!

While the number of days that listings stay on the market before entering escrow has risen, the competition among Buyers creating bidding wars has also diminished, although it has not totally disappeared.  According to the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales data, there were a total of 96 residential sales in February on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, up from 75 in January.  The County Recorder reported 107 total sales in February, indicating that 11 private sales did not register in the MLS.  Of the 96 MLS sales, 23% closed above the original asking price (up from 15% in January), 23% closed at the original asking price (up from 17% in January), and 54% closed for less than the original asking price (down from 68% in January).  After analyzing the February sales data, there were 3 listings (down from 5 in January) which sold $100,000+ over their original asking prices; these listings were Walnut Lane which sold $130,000 over asking price, Anacapa Street which sold $110,000 over asking price, and Hillsboro Street which sold $100,000 over asking Price.  Nationally, the percentage of sales over the asking price has hovered around 28% as compared to the South Coast of Santa Barbara’s 23% February ratio.  If you think Buyer competition is high in Santa Barbara, data from  COMPASS in the Silicon Valley shows that at least 40 homes sold for $200,000 or more above list price in February, including 17 homes that sold for $400,000 or more above list price.  Notably, one property in Los Gatos sold for $1,400,000 above asking price in just 8 days on the market, and two other homes sold for $900,000 more.  Multiple-offer bidding wars are fierce: one house attracted 25 offers in 8 days and 5 other properties received more than 10 offers each. 

Speaking of inventory levels, according to Anthony Smith’s National Housing Market Update March 5^th article:  “Though the number of homes for sale exceeds 2025 levels, providing homebuyers with more options, the pace of the inventory recovery has slowed significantly. Last year at this time, inventory was growing at a rate closer to 30% year over year. These single-digit growth rates are a welcome improvement, but seem a bit disappointing given the rapid inventory recovery over the past two years from historic lows.  The median home spent 68 days on the market this week, falling below 70 days for the first time since November, but coming in 5 days slower than this time last year. The slowdown in the market was a bit less pronounced this week than it has been so far in 2026, as mortgage rates just above 6% range make things a bit easier on buyers and may be breathing some life into the market.”  https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-february-28-2026/

Of the 107 residential sales in February 2026, 94 sold over $1,000,000, which equates to 88% of the total sales, up from 78% January.  The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate compared to other areas of the United States, but many people will pay more to live in Santa Barbara.  According to Property Shark’s survey, California had 7 of the 10 most expensive median-priced ZIP codes in the United States.  Montecito’s 93108 ZIP code came in at #5 with a median sale price of $6,995,000.  The #1 spot is held by Fisher Island (off the coast of Miami) where the median sale price is $11,925,000, which is 27  times higher than the U.S. median sale price. https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us/

Another verification of Santa Barbara’s popularity, no matter the cost, the New York Post’s survey ranked the most expensive cities in the US to visit as a tourist and the winner is #1 Aspen where a three-day trip for two costs $2,708!  Closely followed is #2 Santa Barbara where a three-day trip for two costs $2,446!  Filling out the top five on the list were Anchorage, Bar Harbor, and Fairbanks.  The last (#55) on the list and the least expensive tourist destination for vacationers was Clearwater where a three-day trip for two costs $1,630, 40% less than Aspen. https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/lifestyle/most-expensive-tourist-destinations-in-the-us-in-2025/

Another reason Santa Barbara is so sought after is its local educational system as University of California Santa Barbara ranked as #91 out of 2,250 universities worldwide, and Santa Barbara City College ranked #1 out of the 116 Community Colleges in California.

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings and 

https://bold.org/blog/best-community-colleges-in-california

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026, where officials are expected to discuss interest rates, following a pause in January at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.  The meeting will review economic conditions, inflation, and labor market data. With the Iran war and rising prices of gasoline, economists doubt there the Fed will lower rates anytime soon.  Powell noted that while consumers are gloomy in surveys, they are still spending at a healthy pace, helping propel the economy.  After three consecutive cuts in late 2025, the Fed is navigating a potential shift in strategy, with some officials focusing more on inflation.

Since the beginning of 2022, 30-year mortgage interest rates have doubled, but started easing downward in 2024, and are now 5.95% as of March 1^st 2026.  Due to the war in the  middle east, rates are much higher now on March 11^th.  Historically, the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in February 2021 at 2.65% and that low rate was matched in July 2021 during the COVID pandemic.  If Buyers are expecting 3% or even low 5% mortgage rates to return to buy a home, they are waiting for an anomaly and  should wait no longer.  The highest historical 30-year fixed-rate interest rate was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%. The average 30-year mortgage rate over the last 50 years has been 7.70%, so current rates are still well below that average.  Mortgage rates of 8.03% in October 2023 were at a 23-year high following all-time lows reached just three years before, highlighting the effect that financing costs have on the housing market.  A $913,100 loan in 1981 would have been $13,423/ month, the payment in June 2021 would have been $3,679/month, and now, as of March  1^st, that payment would be $5,445/month.  As an alternative to obtaining a mortgage, in February 2026, 44% of South Coast Buyers purchased in cash, up from 39% in January.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index eased to 36 in February of 2026 from 37 in the previous month, contrasting slightly with market expectations that it would improve to 38. It was the softest reading in five months, reflecting continued challenges in the US housing market. Builder sentiment deteriorated across most components of the index, with sales  expectations in the next six months dropping by three points to 46, while the traffic of positive buyers dropped two points to 22. In turn, current sales conditions remained unchanged at 41. The survey reported that 36% of builders cut prices in the period, 4 percentage points below the ratio in January.   https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index

As for the worldwide cost of living as of March 8^th, Expatistan compiled an index of 110 major worldwide metropolitan areas.  According to the index in the United States (and the world) the most expensive area to live in is #1 New York City with a @ 245 Price Index score (the least expensive gallon of regular gas costs $3.29/gallon in New York).  The least expensive in the United States is #87 Cedar Rapids, Iowa @ 83 ($2.99/gallon).  The lowest State average gas price in the United States is $2.96/gallon in Oklahoma.  Of the top 25 most expensive areas on the worldwide list, two are in California:  #5 San Francisco @ 204 ($4.49/gallon) and #11 San Diego @ 175 ($4.47/gallon).  According to the index, the least expensive area to live in the world is #110 Yogyakarta (Indonesia) @ 32 ($2.36/gallon).  Gas prices on the South Coast are as low as $4.39/gallon and are generally lower than in other California coastal areas.  A Chevron Station near LAX is charging up to $8.21/gallon!  In California, the most expensive average cost of gas is in Humboldt County @ $5.73 and  the least expensive is in Tuolumne County @ $4.89.  According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of gas in California is $5.16/gallon, while the National average is $3.45/gallon.  These gas prices have gone up dramatically since the start of the Iran war.  Expatistan’s Cost of Living Index is an interesting way to compare the cost of living in cities around the world.  https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index

On February 24^th The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 4.8 points to 72.0. The cutoff for preliminary results was February 17, 2026. “Confidence ticked up  in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”  https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Historically, the highest Year-to-Date median sale price on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500, but that high mark is now ancient history.  The median sale price of all residential 2026 sales Year-To-Date as of March 1^st was $1,675,000, down 11% from 2025 and the average sales price was $2,466,242.  While the median sale price had been hovering near 2007’s historic high for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019, it started its upward climb in 2020, accelerating in 2021 and into the first half of 2022 before leveling off throughout and declining 1% in 2023.  There have been no double-digit price increases in the median sales price since a 17% increase in 2020, 24% in 2021 and 15% in 2022.  The current 11% decrease in the median sales price has not been this low since a 14% decrease in 2009.

Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data, as of  March 1^st in the City of Santa Barbara, there were 65 active House/PUD listings (down from 70 on February 1^st) and 35 pending sales (up from 33 on February 1^st) which equates to a 1.7-month supply (down from 2.1 on February 1^st) of listings for Buyers to choose from in the City of Santa Barbara. Generally, a 1-month supply would indicate the listings would be sold within one month.  A less than 1-month supply of inventory indicates a feverish Seller’s market, a 1-to-2-month supply indicates a heated Seller’s market, and a 2-to-4-month supply is considered a basic Seller’s market where Buyer demand is still high, and inventory is scarce.  Historically, a 4-to-6-month supply of available inventory indicates a Balanced market.  More than a 6-month supply indicates a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful, with Buyers being slower to make decisions as they compare  numerous properties on the market.  Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data as of March 1^st, Carpinteria/Summerland has a 1.7-month supply (down from 2.2 on February 1^st), Montecito has a 4.3-month supply (down from 5.1 on February 1^st), Hope Ranch has a 2.7-month supply (down from 9.5 on February 1^st), and Goleta has a 1.1-month supply (down from 1.8 on February 1^st).  Carpinteria/Summerland has dropped into a heated Seller’s market.  Montecito remains in a Balanced market.  Santa Barbara has dropped into a heated Seller’s market.  Hope Ranch has moved up into a basic Buyer’s market.  Goleta remains in a heated Seller’s market.  With a combined total of 87 House/PUD pending sales (up from 68 on February 1^st) and 171 active listings (down from 178 on February 1^st) along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2-month supply (down from 2.6 on February 1^st) of House/PUD listings from which Buyers can choose.  By removing the 63 higher-valued House/PUD listings in Montecito and Hope Ranch and their 17 pending sales from the equation, there is only a 1.5-month supply (down from 2 on February 1^st) from which Buyers can choose along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County.  With a combined total of 23 Condominium pending sales (down from 29 on February 1^st) and 50 active listings (down from 53 on February 1^st), there is a 2.2-month supply (up from 1.8 on February 1^st) of Condominium listings from which Buyers can choose.

There are many concerns for Buyers and Sellers. These include the wars in Iran and Ukraine, continuing tensions in all of the Middle East, continued worldwide geopolitical tensions, inflation, insurance premium volatility, mortgage interest rates, health insurance rates, President Trump’s tariffs, continuing repercussions of the government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and how other administration economic policies are confusing to our trading partners.  Also, a major concern for Buyers and Sellers is the scarcity and cost of homeowners’ insurance coverage, especially since State Farm, Nationwide, Kemper, Marine America, Trans-Pacific, Allstate and others have refused to issue new policies in California and are not renewing existing home insurance policies.  Farmers Insurance has been restricting the number of new policies it offers since July 2023, but recently removed the cap on the number of new policies it will issue, but insurance still remains very expensive as compared to years past.  Now on March 12^th, the real wildcard is the possible effects the Iran war will have on inflation (gas prices), mortgage interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence.  At the moment, there is so much political and economic uncertainty that no one knows how it will impact the housing market.

California’s Proposition 19 allows homeowners aged 55+ to transfer their existing real estate tax base to a home anywhere in the State; this newer law may encourage some older Sellers who wish to sell their current homes and downsize.  The imbalance between Santa Barbara’s low housing supply and high demand is more pronounced than in most national cities, so over the years, there has been a surge in local property values.  While market corrections may still negatively impact property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast, the impact is expected to be less severe compared to many other areas in the state and country.  New 2026 listings may have remained on the market a bit longer than in 2024 and 2025, but they continue to sell.  Home values in the Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market continue to be supported by supply and demand dynamics due to our current market’s persistent low listing inventory; pre-pandemic House/PUD active listings in March 2019 totaled 485, and now, as of March 1, 2026, there are only 221 active listings, which is 46% lower than in 2019.

Review the attached list of the 107 properties sold on the Santa Barbara South Coast in February 2026, and contact me for information on specific sales in our area.

Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN

Compass

801 Chapala Street

Santa Barbara, CA 93101

805.689.2305

stan@stantabler.com

http://www.stantabler.com

CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980

Positioned quietly between Ventura and Santa Barbara County, Carpinteria is a small, enchanting ocean-side town that is renowned for its exceptional bluffs and seemingly endless beaches. Entertainment in Carpinteria & Summerland California Area includes everything from surf and sea right outside your front door to bike riding, camping, a walk along the Salt Marsh Reserve, fine dining, world-class shopping and much, much more.

Carpinteria Real Estate allows residents and visitors alike to participate in endless recreational, social and cultural activities throughout the year. One great example is the highly celebrated Avocado Festival. Each year the festival can be found along Linden Avenue with everything from award winning guacamole to homemade avocado ice cream. Speaking of food, you will also find a wealth of great restaurants including Carp’s one-stop hamburger shack, Robitaille’s Fine Candies, Island Brewing Company, Cajun Kitchen Café and Hugos Restaurant. You will also find Hollandia Produce, an organic produce company, rounding off the shopping and Entertainment in Carpinteria & Summerland California Area.

Other fantastic sources of Entertainment in Carpinteria & Summerland California Area are the many hiking trails and hot springs found in the neighboring community of Ojai, the events and activities at the Santa Barbara Polo Fields and of course the endless beaches and ocean waves.

As your Carpinteria and Summerland Realtor, it would be my pleasure to introduce you to the area and to the many activities, amenities and luxuries found here. I encourage you to browse my website at your convenience and look forward to assisting you with any and all your real estate needs. You may also be interested in my recent blog entitled: How Do I Price My Carpinteria and Summerland Home? Contact me today to get started whether buying, selling or investing!

When it comes to putting your Carpinteria and Summerland Real Estate on the market, determining the right asking price is one of the most important decisions you and your Realtor will make. If you’re asking the question –  “How Do I Price My Carpinteria and Summerland Home?” – you’re headed in the right direction. With the help of a qualified and experienced Carpinteria Real Estate Agent, you should have no problem setting the right price for your home and attracting more potential buyers to your property.

When determining the appropriate asking price, real estate professionals take several things into consideration. Some of these include: comparable listings and sales, withdrawn and expired listings, pending sales, square foot cost comparisons and the overall condition of the local market. Once these items have been reviewed, a good Realtor will be able to answer: “How Do I Price My Carpinteria and Summerland Home.”

As a seller, it is also important to look at the selling of your home as objectively as possible and to try to keep emotions out of the equation. Equally as important is to remember that pricing your home too high could have a very negative impact on the marketability of your home. By setting a price that is too high, your home could likely become “stale” in the market and will need to be removed from the market for a period of time. If the property is priced too high and sits too long, potential buyers will think negatively of the property. Therefore, in order to get your home sold in the quickest possible time period, it is important for you to give serious consideration to the price suggested by your Realtor.

If you’re still wondering, “How Do I Price My Carpinteria and Summerland Home?” or would like to learn more about Entertainment in Carpinteria & Summerland California Area, I encourage you to browse my website and blog at your leisure. Please contact me if you have any questions. It would be my great pleasure to help you with any and all of your real estate goals!