Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

June 14, 2017

          Direct from the County Recorder’s Office, the overall number of property sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County was down 6% from 175 in May 2016 to 164 in May 2017 while the median sales price was up 9% from $945,000 in May 2016 to $1,015,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 2% from $1,396,740 in May 2016 to $1,523,168 in May 2017.  In May 2017 there were 125 Single Family Residence sales with a median sales price of $1,200,000 and an average sales price of $1,523,168.  In May 2017 there were 38 Condominium sales with a median sales price of $597,500 and an average sales price of $714,884.

          In Carpinteria the number of sales was down 7% from 15 in May 2016 to 14 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 122% from $725,000 in May 2016 to $1,612,500 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 15% from $1,540,700 in May 2016 to $1,315,889 in May 2017.  The lowest Carpinteria sale price in May 2017 was a condominium on Foothill Road for $324,000 and the highest was a house on Sand Point Road for $6,100,000 (50% interest only).

          In Summerland there was one sale reported in May 2017 at 2387 Whitney Avenue for $1,325,500.

          In Montecito the number of sales was down 4% from 26 in May 2016 to 25 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 12% from $2,377,500 in May 2016 to $3,200,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 12% from $3,112,481 in May 2016 to $3,484,200 in May 2017.  The lowest Montecito sale price in May 2017 was a small house on Barker Pass Road for $1,200,000 and the highest was a house on Hot Springs Road for $15,925,000.

          In Santa Barbara the number of sales was up 16% from 86 in May 2016 to 100 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 2% from $990,500 in May 2016 to $1,015,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 11% from $1,124,831 in May 2016 to $1,245,875 in May 2017.  The lowest Santa Barbara sale price in May 2017 was a small house on Santa Barbara Street for $375,000 and the highest was a house on Austin Road for $4,249,000.

          In Hope Ranch the number of sales was down 33% from 3 in May 2016 to 2 in May 2017.  The median sales price was down 12% from $2,200,000 in May 2016 to $1,930,500 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 19% from $2,291,667 in May 2016 to $1,930,500 in May 2017.  The lowest Hope Ranch sale price in May 2017 was a house on Lago Drive for $1,880,000 and the highest was a house on Laguna Blanca Drive for $1,981,000.

          In Goleta the number of sales was down 52% from 44 in May 2016 to 21 in May 2017.  The median sales price was down 14% from $775,000 in May 2016 to $664,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 20% from $812,136 in May 2016 to $652,905 in May 2017.  The lowest Goleta sale price in May 2017 was a Condominium on Dearborn Place for $340,000 and the highest was a house on Buttonwood Lane for $885,000.

Analysis 

            A limited supply of available properties along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is keeping values higher than one might expect as compared to many inland areas of California and most areas of the United States. On the South Coast of Santa Barbara County as of June 13^th, there were only 365 active House/PUD listings and 102 Condominium listings available for purchase.  Generally, there is much more inventory available in the higher price ranges than in the lower ranges as 41% (149) of the active House/PUD listings are located in Montecito and Hope Ranch.  Compare these low totals to the years 2007 to 2011 when the total number of available listings ranged between 734 and 1,026.  Historically the highest number of available listings along the South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were 1,297 listings available for sale.

         On the South Coast of Santa Barbara, in May 2017, there were 3 bank-owned property sales.  As of June 13^th there was 1 active bank-owned listing available from Carpinteria through Goleta.  As of May 13^th there were no bank-owned listings in escrow.  Compare our very small number of foreclosure sales to 17% in New Jersey and 6% nationwide.  Check out Realty Trac’s list: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/ca

          As of April 2017 (the latest available data from CoreLogic) the highest recorded median County sales price in California was in San Francisco City/County @ $1,244,000 (down 4.3% from 2016) and the lowest recorded median sales price was in Siskiyou County @ $161,300 (up 35.5% from 2016).  The median sales price in the County of Santa Barbara was $526,500 (up 10.8% from 2016) and the median sales price in the City of Santa Barbara was $1,075,000 (up 4.9% from 2016).  The lowest median sales price in any California city was in Avenal in Kern County @ $49,500 (down 52.5% from 2016) and the highest was in Atherton in San Mateo County @ $5,100,000 (down 11.5% from 2016).  You could buy 103 median priced houses in Avenal, 9.7 in the County of Santa Barbara or 4.7 in the City of Santa Barbara for the same price as 1 house in Atherton.  Each week Trulia does a national sales survey to determine the median sales prices in each of the States and the District of Columbia; for the week ending May 31, 2017, the District of Columbia had the highest median sales price @ $539,000 and was ranked #46 in Trulia Popularity, West Virginia had the lowest @ $135,000 and was ranked #41 in Trulia Popularity and California was in 2^nd place @ $450,000 and was ranked #1 in Trulia Popularity.  To review Trulia’s maps of sales activity: http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/

          Coldwell Banker’s Home Listing Report for 2016 analyzed the average listing price of more than 50,000 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes and then ranked 2,168 markets across the USA.  California took up 15 of the top 20 most expensive cities with Santa Barbara coming in at #15 with an average price of $1,165,727.  The #1 average price was $2,453,718 in Saratoga, CA and dead last at #2,168 was Detroit, MI at $64,110.  To review the complete list: https://www.coldwellbanker.com/hlr/2016

          The Federal Reserve (the Fed) held short-term interest rates unchanged in May and is now unwinding the $4.5 trillion of bonds it holds on its balance sheet.  In a 2013 speech Ben Bernanke stated “If monetary policymakers are expected to keep short-term interest rates low, then current longer-term interest rates are likely to be low as well, all else being equal.  In short, for monetary policy, expectations matter.”   Bernanke’s prediction is holding true at this time, but the Fed’s intention to reduce its security holdings may have significant intangible results, including raising mortgage interest rates.

          Of the 164 sales on the South Coast in May 2017, 83 were over $1,000,000 which equates to 51% of the total sales, up from 49% in April (I believe this is a historical high at 51%).  Compare our 47% to San Francisco’s 57.4% and San Jose’s 46.3%.  The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate as compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will just pay more to live and invest here.

          On May 30^th, the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 117.9 down from 119.4 in April (124.9 was a 16.5 year high in March 2017).  Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, stated “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April.”

          There were 47 cash transactions out of a total of 164 sales in May 2017, which equates to 29% of the properties being sold for cash, up from 23% in April.  The lowest percentage occurred in June 2013 when only 13% of the sales were all cash and the highest was in January 2016 when 36% of the sales were all cash.  The highest year-to-date median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2006 at $980,000; the year-to-date median sales price for 2017 is $928,000, so the median sales price is within striking distance of that 2006 high mark and has been for the last year.

          The local market is still slightly tipped in the Seller’s favor due to lack of available inventory although I do feel most prices have plateaued and softened in some neighborhoods, especially in the higher valued areas.  Take for example the available inventory as of June 13^th in Goleta where there were only 52 active House/PUD listings and 48 pending sales, which equates to only a 1.1 month supply of properties for Buyers to choose from.  Historically somewhere around a 5 to 6 month supply of available inventory would indicate a balanced market between Buyers and Sellers.  Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of June 13^th, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 2.3 month supply, Montecito had a 5 month supply, Santa Barbara had a 1.7 month supply and Hope Ranch had a 4.7 month supply of inventory currently on the market.  These numbers indicate that Goleta, Carpinteria/Summerland and Santa Barbara markets are tilting in the Seller’s favor while Montecito and Hope Ranch markets are tilting in the Buyer’s favor.  With a total of 171 House/PUD pending sales and only 365 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 2.1 month supply of House/PUD listings to choose from.  With a total of 56 Condominium pending sales and only 102 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is 1.8 month supply of Condominium listings to choose from.  Buyers can and will decide if a property is overpriced or underpriced and act on ones about which they feel confident.  As the market pace has slowed a bit due to the season and inventory has risen slightly, we have seen the last of double-digit property appreciation for the time being.  Local economists feel that the appreciation rate for the South Coast of Santa Barbara  will be closer to 3% in 2017.  Along with being a great time to buy a property if you can find one that meets your needs and lock in a still great long term mortgage rate, it is also a good time to sell a property as there is still a pool of willing buyers waiting for the ‘right’ property to come onto the market at the ‘right’ price.

Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

June 14, 2017

          Direct from the County Recorder’s Office, the overall number of property sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County was down 6% from 175 in May 2016 to 164 in May 2017 while the median sales price was up 9% from $945,000 in May 2016 to $1,015,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 2% from $1,396,740 in May 2016 to $1,523,168 in May 2017.  In May 2017 there were 125 Single Family Residence sales with a median sales price of $1,200,000 and an average sales price of $1,523,168.  In May 2017 there were 38 Condominium sales with a median sales price of $597,500 and an average sales price of $714,884.

          In Carpinteria the number of sales was down 7% from 15 in May 2016 to 14 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 122% from $725,000 in May 2016 to $1,612,500 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 15% from $1,540,700 in May 2016 to $1,315,889 in May 2017.  The lowest Carpinteria sale price in May 2017 was a condominium on Foothill Road for $324,000 and the highest was a house on Sand Point Road for $6,100,000 (50% interest only).

          In Summerland there was one sale reported in May 2017 at 2387 Whitney Avenue for $1,325,500.

          In Montecito the number of sales was down 4% from 26 in May 2016 to 25 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 12% from $2,377,500 in May 2016 to $3,200,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 12% from $3,112,481 in May 2016 to $3,484,200 in May 2017.  The lowest Montecito sale price in May 2017 was a small house on Barker Pass Road for $1,200,000 and the highest was a house on Hot Springs Road for $15,925,000.

          In Santa Barbara the number of sales was up 16% from 86 in May 2016 to 100 in May 2017.  The median sales price was up 2% from $990,500 in May 2016 to $1,015,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was up 11% from $1,124,831 in May 2016 to $1,245,875 in May 2017.  The lowest Santa Barbara sale price in May 2017 was a small house on Santa Barbara Street for $375,000 and the highest was a house on Austin Road for $4,249,000.

          In Hope Ranch the number of sales was down 33% from 3 in May 2016 to 2 in May 2017.  The median sales price was down 12% from $2,200,000 in May 2016 to $1,930,500 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 19% from $2,291,667 in May 2016 to $1,930,500 in May 2017.  The lowest Hope Ranch sale price in May 2017 was a house on Lago Drive for $1,880,000 and the highest was a house on Laguna Blanca Drive for $1,981,000.

         In Goleta the number of sales was down 52% from 44 in May 2016 to 21 in May 2017.  The median sales price was down 14% from $775,000 in May 2016 to $664,000 in May 2017 and the average sales price was down 20% from $812,136 in May 2016 to $652,905 in May 2017.  The lowest Goleta sale price in May 2017 was a Condominium on Dearborn Place for $340,000 and the highest was a house on Buttonwood Lane for $885,000.

Analysis

          A limited supply of available properties along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is keeping values higher than one might expect as compared to many inland areas of California and most areas of the United States. On the South Coast of Santa Barbara County as of June 13^th, there were only 365 active House/PUD listings and 102 Condominium listings available for purchase.  Generally, there is much more inventory available in the higher price ranges than in the lower ranges as 41% (149) of the active House/PUD listings are located in Montecito and Hope Ranch.  Compare these low totals to the years 2007 to 2011 when the total number of available listings ranged between 734 and 1,026.  Historically the highest number of available listings along the South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were 1,297 listings available for sale.

          On the South Coast of Santa Barbara, in May 2017, there were 3 bank-owned property sales.  As of June 13^th there was 1 active bank-owned listing available from Carpinteria through Goleta.  As of May 13^th there were no bank-owned listings in escrow.  Compare our very small number of foreclosure sales to 17% in New Jersey and 6% nationwide.  Check out Realty Trac’s list: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/ca

          As of April 2017 (the latest available data from CoreLogic) the highest recorded median County sales price in California was in San Francisco City/County @ $1,244,000 (down 4.3% from 2016) and the lowest recorded median sales price was in Siskiyou County @ $161,300 (up 35.5% from 2016).  The median sales price in the County of Santa Barbara was $526,500 (up 10.8% from 2016) and the median sales price in the City of Santa Barbara was $1,075,000 (up 4.9% from 2016).  The lowest median sales price in any California city was in Avenal in Kern County @ $49,500 (down 52.5% from 2016) and the highest was in Atherton in San Mateo County @ $5,100,000 (down 11.5% from 2016).  You could buy 103 median priced houses in Avenal, 9.7 in the County of Santa Barbara or 4.7 in the City of Santa Barbara for the same price as 1 house in Atherton.  Each week Trulia does a national sales survey to determine the median sales prices in each of the States and the District of Columbia; for the week ending May 31, 2017, the District of Columbia had the highest median sales price @ $539,000 and was ranked #46 in Trulia Popularity, West Virginia had the lowest @ $135,000 and was ranked #41 in Trulia Popularity and California was in 2^nd place @ $450,000 and was ranked #1 in Trulia Popularity.  To review Trulia’s maps of sales activity: http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/

          Coldwell Banker’s Home Listing Report for 2016 analyzed the average listing price of more than 50,000 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes and then ranked 2,168 markets across the USA.  California took up 15 of the top 20 most expensive cities with Santa Barbara coming in at #15 with an average price of $1,165,727.  The #1 average price was $2,453,718 in Saratoga, CA and dead last at #2,168 was Detroit, MI at $64,110.  To review the complete list: https://www.coldwellbanker.com/hlr/2016

          The Federal Reserve (the Fed) held short-term interest rates unchanged in May and is now unwinding the $4.5 trillion of bonds it holds on its balance sheet.  In a 2013 speech Ben Bernanke stated “If monetary policymakers are expected to keep short-term interest rates low, then current longer-term interest rates are likely to be low as well, all else being equal.  In short, for monetary policy, expectations matter.”   Bernanke’s prediction is holding true at this time, but the Fed’s intention to reduce its security holdings may have significant intangible results, including raising mortgage interest rates.

          Of the 164 sales on the South Coast in May 2017, 83 were over $1,000,000 which equates to 51% of the total sales, up from 49% in April (I believe this is a historical high at 51%).  Compare our 47% to San Francisco’s 57.4% and San Jose’s 46.3%.  The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate as compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will just pay more to live and invest here.

          On May 30^th, the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 117.9 down from 119.4 in April (124.9 was a 16.5 year high in March 2017).  Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, stated “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April.”

          There were 47 cash transactions out of a total of 164 sales in May 2017, which equates to 29% of the properties being sold for cash, up from 23% in April.  The lowest percentage occurred in June 2013 when only 13% of the sales were all cash and the highest was in January 2016 when 36% of the sales were all cash.  The highest year-to-date median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2006 at $980,000; the year-to-date median sales price for 2017 is $928,000, so the median sales price is within striking distance of that 2006 high mark and has been for the last year.

          The local market is still slightly tipped in the Seller’s favor due to lack of available inventory although I do feel most prices have plateaued and softened in some neighborhoods, especially in the higher valued areas.  Take for example the available inventory as of June 13^th in Goleta where there were only 52 active House/PUD listings and 48 pending sales, which equates to only a 1.1 month supply of properties for Buyers to choose from.  Historically somewhere around a 5 to 6 month supply of available inventory would indicate a balanced market between Buyers and Sellers.  Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of June 13^th, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 2.3 month supply, Montecito had a 5 month supply, Santa Barbara had a 1.7 month supply and Hope Ranch had a 4.7 month supply of inventory currently on the market.  These numbers indicate that Goleta, Carpinteria/Summerland and Santa Barbara markets are tilting in the Seller’s favor while Montecito and Hope Ranch markets are tilting in the Buyer’s favor.  With a total of 171 House/PUD pending sales and only 365 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 2.1 month supply of House/PUD listings to choose from.  With a total of 56 Condominium pending sales and only 102 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is 1.8 month supply of Condominium listings to choose from.  Buyers can and will decide if a property is overpriced or underpriced and act on ones about which they feel confident.  As the market pace has slowed a bit due to the season and inventory has risen slightly, we have seen the last of double-digit property appreciation for the time being.  Local economists feel that the appreciation rate for the South Coast of Santa Barbara  will be closer to 3% in 2017.  Along with being a great time to buy a property if you can find one that meets your needs and lock in a still great long term mortgage rate, it is also a good time to sell a property as there is still a pool of willing buyers waiting for the ‘right’ property to come onto the market at the ‘right’ price.