The decision to purchase real estate or to place your home for sale in the Santa Barbara real estate market can be one of the biggest you and your family will make at any given time. This decision can be made easier if you are adequately informed about the buying and selling process, the local real estate market and the neighborhoods and communities in which you are interested. As a local real estate professional with more than thirty years of experience helping buyers and sellers just like you, it would be my great pleasure to introduce you to the Santa Barbara Real Estate Services I offer to both buyers and sellers.
For sake of simplicity, buying a home is a three-step process: finding the right community, finding the right home and negotiating the best contract terms. For your convenience, I have compiled a wealth of information on local communities and their real estate trends as well as provided you access to the search the entire Santa Barbara MLS to view available properties. Once we have narrowed down the ideal community and the right home, I will use my many years of experience and expertise and my Santa Barbara Real Estate Services to negotiate the contract terms to suit your needs and to exceed your expectations.
For sellers, I believe you will find my commitment to untiring communication and service, masterful marketing and negotiation skills to be most refreshing. Resulting from years of extensive experience and research, a superior ability to anticipate problems and solve them and unsurpassed ethics and professionalism, you will find these qualities will help your home sell quickly and for its highest dollar.
Whether you are moving across town or across the country, it would be my great pleasure to assist you with all your housing needs and to share my Santa Barbara Real Estate Services with you and your family. Please feel free to browse my Santa Barbara Home Buying and Selling Tips at your leisure and do not hesitate to contact me, Stan Tabler at your convenience. I look forward to hearing from you soon and assisting you with all your real estate goals, big and small.
Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update
March 12, 2024
According to data obtained from the County Recorder’s Office by Fidelity National Title, residential property sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast increased by 22% in February 2024 with 89 sales recorded as compared to 73 in 2023. Out of the 89 sales in February 2024, 57 were houses or in planned unit developments (PUDs), up 16% from 2023. The median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,265,000, up 8% from 2023 and the average sale price was $4,226,728, up 34% from 2023. There were 32 Condominium sales in February 2024, up 33% from 2023. The median sale price of these Condominium sales was $962,500, up 31% from 2023, and the average sale price was $1,023,626, down 9% from 2023. Year-to-date in 2024, there has been a total of 174 residential sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast, up 23% from 2023. The Year-to-Date median sale price for all residential sales as of February 2024 was $1,625,000, and the average sale price was $2,799,930.
In Carpinteria, there were a total of 11 residential sales in February 2024, up from 7 in January. In February 2024 there were no House/PUD sales in Carpinteria. In February 2024 the median price of the 11 Condominium sales was $825,000 and the average price was $867,727. The lowest-priced Carpinteria sale in February 2024 was a Condominium on Via Real @ $580,000 and the highest was a Condominium on Foothill Road @ $1,215,000.
There were no sales in Summerland in February 2024, down from 1 in January.
In Montecito, there were a total of 13 residential sales in February 2024, down from 16 in January. In February 2024 the median price of the 13 House/PUD sales was $5,950,000 and the average price was $11,424,192. In February 2024 there were no Condominium sales in Montecito. The lowest-priced Montecito sale in February 2024 was a House on Coyote Road @ $2,500,000 and the highest was an Estate on Park Lane @ $36,800,000.
In Santa Barbara, there were a total of 41 residential sales in February 2024, up from 36 in January. In February 2024 the median price of the 28 House/PUD sales was $2,171,500 and the average price was $2,311,299. In February 2024 the median price of the 13 Condominium sales was $1,210,000 and the average price was $1,207,733. The lowest-priced Santa Barbara sale in February 2024 was a Condominium on Garden Street @ $799,000 and the highest was a House on Holly Road @ $5,615,000.
There were no sales in Hope Ranch in February 2024, down from 2 in January.
In Goleta, there were a total of 24 residential sales in February 2024, the same number of sales as in January. In February 2024 the median price of the 16 House/PUD sales was $1,527,500 and the average price was $1,730,791. In February 2024 the median price of the 8 Condominium sales was $937,500 and the average price was $928,813. The lowest-priced Goleta sale in February 2024 was a Condominium on Dearborn Place @ $550,000 and the highest was a House on Boulder Ridge Road @ $3,600,000.
Analysis
The real estate market on the Santa Barbara South Coast has been affected by various factors. Many Sellers are still hesitant to sell their homes and the inventory of 2024 properties for sale remains relatively low. Historically low mortgage interest rates have risen dramatically since earlier in 2022 and as of March 1st, they lingered around 6.5%, up from 6.35% in February.
As of March 1st, there were 119 active House/PUD listings, up from 110 in February, and 34 active Condominium listings, down from 39 in February, available along the Santa Barbara South Coast. The current housing supply shortage will continue to put pressure on housing values as the reduction in supply has now continued into 2024. Compare our current supply levels to 2007 to 2011 when the total number of active listings for Buyers to choose from fluctuated between 734 and 1,026. Historically the highest number of active listings along the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were an astonishing 1,297 active listings available for Buyers to choose from.
Bank-owned sales on Santa Barbara’s South Coast have been very rare; in all of 2021 and 2022, there were only 4 bank-owned sales. There were no bank-owned sales in 2023 and only 1 short sale on W. Figueroa Street. Currently, the one bank-owned listing that was available expired after 436 days on the market (but is still privately available): an oceanfront estate on Marina Drive in Hope Ranch listed for $21,500,000 (this may rate as the highest-value bank-owned residential property in all of California). According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey, mortgage payment delinquency rates were 3.62% at the end of the third quarter of 2023 up from 3.37 in the second quarter. Rising home equity has allowed most owners to “bail out” of their financially distressed properties, pay off the mortgage, and avoid foreclosure. In 2023, there were several bankruptcy sales (where an owner’s debt has had to be restructured by a Trustee resulting in the sale of a property). To review the entire Mortgage Bankers Survey, check out this link: https://newslink.mba.org/mba-tag/mba-national-delinquency-survey/ .
According to the CNBC article on the Federal Reserve authored by Kelly Neubauer and Dan Avery on February 27th: “Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? It’s a matter of when, not if, according to the central bank. But the Fed has indicated that consumers shouldn’t expect any cuts until at least the spring. To combat ongoing inflation, it raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. After its December 2023 session, the Fed forecasted it would make three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the benchmark rate to 4.6%. Prices have started to come down, but the group has signaled it wants to see more positive data before pulling the trigger. At the first meeting of 2024, held Jan. 30 and 31, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady at a target range of 5.25 to 5.5%, the highest it’s been in more than 20 years. The FOMC will have seven more opportunities to cut interest rates this year, starting with its next meeting on March 19 and 20.” In early March Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his semiannual report to Congress and said absolutely nothing new. To paraphrase: We have made a lot of progress, but we still need to see more evidence that inflation is heading sustainably downward towards 2%. To review the full article, check out https://www.cnbc.com/select/when-will-interest-rates-drop/
Mortgage interest rates have doubled since the beginning of 2022. As of March 1st, if you shopped around you could lock in a $766,550 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage at 6.65% with no loan fee (up from 6.50% with a 1% loan fee in February). Historically the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in February 2021 at 2.65% and that rate was matched yet again in July 2021 during the pandemic. The highest historical 30-year fixed-rate interest rate was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate over the last 50 years has been 7.74%, so now rates are still lower than that average. Mortgage rates of 7.79% in October 2023 were at a 23-year high following all-time lows reached just three years ago highlighting the effect that financing costs have on the housing market, a particularly rate-sensitive sector of the economy. As a comparison, a mortgage payment for a $766,550 mortgage in 1981 would have been $11,947/month, the payment in July 2021 would have been $3,089/month, and as of March 1st, that payment would be $4,921/month. Many potential buyers are now back on the hunt for homes in anticipation of fixed-rate mortgages moving even lower later in 2024. Another reason for low inventory levels is that existing homeowners with mortgage interest rates of 2.75% or 3.5% are reluctant to move to another home at a much higher interest rate, which may be more than double their current rate.
According to Business Insider, cash buyers represented 33.4% of the national sale transactions, far above average levels of around 25% during the last 10 years. In highly sought out areas cash Buyers represent a much higher percentage of sales: 69% in the City of Carmel, 65% in Manhattan (New York), 57% in Pebble Beach, and 54% in Pacific Grove. On the Santa Barbara South Coast in February 2024, the percentage of cash sales was 47%, up from 41% in January.
Of the 89 residential sales in February 2024, 66 were over $1,000,000 which equates to 77.1% of the total sales, down from 77.6% in January. The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will pay more to live and invest in Santa Barbara. According to PropertyShark’s most recent 2023 report, California had 6 (down from 7 in 2022) of the 10 most expensive median-priced ZIP codes in the country. Montecito’s 93108 ZIP code came in at #4 (up from #8 in 2022) of the most expensive ZIP codes in the USA, even beating out Beverly Hills. Check out the full report: https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us
U.S. News compiled surveys on the 24 most expensive places to live in the United States during the last year. Their surveys were based on the median gross rent and annual housing costs for mortgage-paying homeowners of each city. California had 12 of the 24 (50%!) cities that require the most wealth to live comfortably: Santa Barbara came in at #5. To see the entire article, check out https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/most-expensive-places-to-live
WalletHub assessed the states where people experience the most stress based on Work-related, Money-related, Family, Health, and Safety-related stress……the top 7 most stressful states are West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, and Mississippi. The least stressful states are Utah, Hawaii, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California! To review this article, check out https://wallethub.com/edu/happiest-states/6959
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the United States increased to 48 in February 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 44 in January and beating forecasts of 46. Yet, builder sentiment improved for a third month, amid expectations that mortgage rates will continue to moderate in the coming months, the prospect of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, and a protracted lack of existing inventory. “While mortgage rates still remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to decline this year”, said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024. “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.” To review the entire article check out https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
As for the worldwide cost of living as of March 2024, Expatistan compiled an index of 194 major worldwide metropolitan areas. Gas prices were checked on March 1st. In the United States, the most expensive area to live in is #2 New York City with @ 223 Price Index score (the least expensive gallon of regular gas costs $3.27/gallon) and the least expensive is #136 Cedar Rapids, Iowa @ 86 ($3.09/gallon). Expatistan’s list indicates that #5 San Francisco @ 210 is the most expensive area in California ($4.43/gallon) in this survey and the least expensive is #44 Walnut Creek @ 143 ($4.27/gallon). Searching the entire state of California, the least expensive gallon of gas can be found in Alameda County @ $3.73/gallon. Of the top 25 most expensive areas worldwide, four are in California (up from two in February); #5 San Francisco @ 210, #11 San Jose @ 199 ($4.09/gallon), #17 Los Angeles @ 182 ($3.97/gallon) and Oakland @ 181 ($4.09/gallon). The most expensive area to live in the world is #1 London (England) @ 230 ($5.79/gallon) and the least expensive is #194 Yogyakarta (Indonesia) @ 37 ($2.91/gallon). Santa Barbara is not on the list as Expatistan does not rate it as a major metropolitan area. Local gas prices as low as $4.35/gallon are similar to other California coastal areas. Expatistan’s Cost of Living Index is an interesting way to compare the cost of living in cities around the world: https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index
According to Danielle Hale’s February 24, 2024 report on Realtor.com: “The macro factors driving the housing market have not changed notably. Builders still have not closed the sizable housing supply gap, and while construction remains relatively elevated, with single-family starts exceeding 1 million units in January, there is room for more building. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have reversed course, climbing to 6.9% last week according to Freddie Mac which means that some shoppers are certainly seeing quotes in the 7s. Yet, amid the challenges, more sellers are participating in the 2024 housing market. Both newly listed homes and the active inventory of homes for sale rose again this week by an even larger gap than last week. This means that despite macro-challenges, home shoppers can expect more options as we head into what is traditionally the busy spring home-buying season. Further, although homes still sell quickly, the growing number of sellers appear to be less inclined to aggressively push asking prices, meaning only a small step-up (0.4%) compared to one year ago.” Check out the full report at https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-feb-24-2024/
Historically the highest Year-to-Date median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500. The median sale price of all residential sales Year-To-Date in 2024 was $1,625,000, down 4% from $2,700,000 in 2023. The median sales price had been hovering near 2007’s historic high for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019, then started an upward climb in 2020, accelerating in 2021 and into the first half of 2022 before leveling off throughout most of 2023. The average sale price of all residential sales Year-To-Date in 2024 was $2,799,930, up 7.4% from $2,608,045 in 2023.
Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data, as of March 1st in the City of Santa Barbara, there were 51 active House/PUD listings (up from 44 in February) and 30 pending sales (down from 31 in February), which equates to a 1.7-month supply (up from 1.4 in February) of listings for Buyers to choose from. Generally, a 1-month supply would indicate the listings would all be sold within one month. A less than 1-month supply of inventory indicates a feverish Seller’s market, a 1-to-2-month supply indicates a heated Seller’s market and a 2-to-4-month supply would be considered a basic Seller’s market where Buyer demand is still high and inventory is scarce. Historically a 4-to-6-month supply of available inventory would indicate a fairly well-balanced, normal market between Buyers and Sellers. More than a 6-month supply is considered to be a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful; Buyers will be slower to make decisions as they compare the numerous properties on the market. Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of March 1st, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 5.3-month supply (down from 18 in February), Montecito had a 5.6-month supply (up from 3 in February), Goleta had a .8-month supply (down from 1.5 in February) and Hope Ranch had a 10-month supply (up from 8 in February). These inventory statistics indicate that Goleta is in a Feverish Seller’s market and Santa Barbara is in a Heated Seller’s market. Carpinteria/Summerland and Montecito have moved into Well-Balanced markets. Hope Ranch has moved into a Buyer’s market. With a combined total of 55 House/PUD pending sales (up from 50 in February) and 119 active listings (up from 110 in February) along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2.2-month supply (the same as in February) of House/PUD listings from which Buyers can choose. With a combined total of 21 Condominium pending sales (same as in February) and only 34 active listings (down from 39 in February) on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 1.6-month supply (down from 1.9 in February) of Condominium listings from which Buyers can choose. The total South Coast of Santa Barbara County market is in a state of transition with property values remaining static for most of 2023 and now into the first months of 2024. While today’s Buyers are seeing fewer multiple-offer situations, they will still pay a premium for a home with great amenities and in a great location. In some Buyers’ minds, the sense of urgency to purchase a home may have tapered off a bit with more inventory to choose from in certain areas. People still want to live along the Santa Barbara South Coast to enjoy the Mediterranean climate and our casual lifestyle.
While concerns about the pandemic’s economic impact have diminished, there are several other concerns for many Buyers and Sellers. These include the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rapidly rising insurance premiums, mortgage interest rates, and still the possibility of a recession or a “soft landing”. Now a major concern is the scarcity of homeowners’ insurance coverage, especially since State Farm, Nationwide, Kemper and Allstate have now refused to issue new insurance policies to California home buyers. California’s Proposition 19, which has now taken full effect, allows homeowners aged 55+ to transfer their existing real estate tax base to a home anywhere in the State; this change may be encouraging to some older Sellers who wish to sell their current homes and downsize. Lack of inventory means high demand and therefore higher prices, so over many years there has been a surge in property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast. While market corrections may still negatively impact property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast, the impact is expected to be less severe compared to many other areas in the state and country. New listings in 2024 may remain on the market a bit longer than in 2023, but each week we are still seeing multiple offers on certain well-priced listings. Home values in the Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market continue to be positively affected by supply and demand dynamics due to our market’s persistent low listing inventory; I expect this value dynamic to continue into the foreseeable future.
Review the attached list of the 89 properties sold on the Santa Barbara South Coast in February 2024 and feel free to contact me for information on specific sales in our area.
Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN
Compass
801 Chapala Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
805.689.2305
CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980