Santa Barbara Real Estate Services

Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

June 14, 2019

          Direct from the County Recorder’s Office by way of Fidelity National Title, the total number of property sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County was up 11% from 173 in May 2018 to 192 in May 2019, the January-May median sales price was up 3% from 2018 to $1,042,500 in 2019 and the January-May average sales price was up 3% from 2018 to $1,546,982 in 2019.  In May 2019 there were 135 House/PUD sales with a median sales price of $1,288,500 and an average sales price of $1,886,152.  In May 2019 there were 57 Condominium sales with a median sales price of $695,000 and an average sales price of $801,982.

          In Carpinteria there were a total of 15 sales in May 2019.  The median sales price of the 5 House/PUD sales was $1,100,000 and the average sales price was $1,134,000.  In May 2019 the median sales price of the 10 Condominium sales was $535,000 and the average sales price was $535,800.  The lowest priced Carpinteria sale in May 2019 was a Condominium on Eighth Street @ $368,000 and the highest was a House on Gobernador Canyon Road @ $1,550,000.

          In Summerland there was only one sale in May 2019: a House on Golden Gate Avenue for $1,375,000.

          In Montecito there were a total of 22 sales in May 2019.  The median sales price of the 19 House/PUD sales was $3,150,000 and the average sales price was $4,123,237.  In May 2019 the median sales price of the 3 Condominium sales was $1,100,000 and the average sales price was $2,061,677.  The lowest priced Montecito sale in May 2019 was a Condominium on Jameson Lane @ $735,000 and the highest was an Estate on E. Mountain Drive @ $12,000,000.

          In Santa Barbara there were a total of 91 sales in May 2019.  The median sales price of the 68 House/PUD sales was $1,286,750 and the average sales price was $1,502,390.  In May 2019 the median sales price of the 23 Condominium sales was $747,000 and the average sales price was $871,391.  The lowest priced Santa Barbara sale in May 2019 was a Condominium on Miramonte Drive @ $482,500 and the highest was a House on Shoreline Drive @ $4,671,000.

          In Hope Ranch there were a total of 4 sales in May 2019.  The median sales price of the 5 House/Estate sales was $5,690,000 and the average sales price was $6,053,750.  The lowest priced Hope Ranch sale in May 2019 was a House on Estrella Drive @ $2,335,000 and the highest was an Estate on Via Abrigada @ $10,500,000.

          In Goleta there were a total of 59 sales in May 2019.  The median sales price of the 38 House/PUD sales was $990,000 and the average sales price was $1,128,066.  In May 2019 the median sales price of the 21 Condominium sales was $716,500 and the average sales price was $672,762.  The lowest priced Goleta sale in May 2019 was a Condominium on Hollister Avenue @ $405,000 and the highest was a House on Louisiana Place @ $2,606,000.

 Analysis

         A limited supply of available properties along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is keeping values higher than one might expect as compared to many inland areas of California and most areas of the United States.  While the appreciation rate along the South Coast has softened, there are still a few areas where multiple offers are possible, but they have become few and far between.  On the South Coast of Santa Barbara County as of June 6^th there were 423 active House/PUD listings  (up from 378 in May) and 114 active Condominium listings available for purchase (down from 125 in May).  Generally, there is much more inventory available in the higher price ranges than in the lower ranges as 168 (39.7%) of the 423 active House/PUD listings are located in Montecito and Hope Ranch.  Compare these low totals to the years 2007 to 2011 when the total number of available listings ranged between 734 and 1,026.  Historically the highest number of available listings along the South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were 1,297 listings available for sale!

          After having no bank-owned sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara since September 2018, in March 2019 there were 3 bank-owned sales, in April there was 1 bank-owned sale and in May there were 3 bank-owned sales: a Condominium on Palmetto Way @ $459,900, a House on Portesuello Avenue @ 1,190,000 and a House on Hill Road @ $2,575,000.  As of June 6^th there is 1 bank-owned listing available for sale: a House on Painted Cave Road @ $2,695,000 (the same listing as in March, April and May).  There are no bank-owned properties in escrow.  During the last few years, the foreclosure activity along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County has diminished dramatically.  CoreLogic’s latest (February 2019) reports that the national mortgage delinquency rate is now at its lowest point in nearly 2 decades: https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-05-14/corelogic-reports-u-s-overall-delinquency-rate-lowest-for-a-february-in-nearly-two-decades .  Also check out California’s foreclosure list by RealtyTrac: California Foreclosure Trends by County .

          As of April 2019 (the latest data available from CoreLogic), the highest recorded County median sales price in California was in San Francisco County @ $1,400,000 (up 5.7% from 2018) and the lowest recorded County median sales price was in Siskiyou County @ $200,000 (down 7.4% from 2018).  The median sales price in the County of Santa Barbara was $604,000 (up 9.8% from 2018) and the median sales price in the City of Santa Barbara was $1,230,000 (up 20.1% from 2018).  The lowest median sales price recorded in any California city was in Angelus Oaks in San Bernardino County @ $30,000 (down 86.7% from 2018) and the highest was in Atherton in San Mateo County @ $11,500,000 (up 88.5% from 2018).  You could buy 383 median priced houses in Angelus Oaks (maybe the whole town), 19 in the County of Santa Barbara or 9.3 in the City of Santa Barbara for the same price as 1 house in Atherton.  If you care to see what you can buy in the Angelus Oaks area for $85,000 (a cabin) check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/49-Round-Cienega-Trl_Angelus-Oaks_CA_92305_M16860-14526?view=qv .  If you care to see what you can buy in Atherton for $11,880,000 check outhttps://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/24-Stockbridge-Ave_Atherton_CA_94027_M11895-63632?view=qv .  If you want to see a really cool house in Atherton that just sold for $21,000,000, check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/96-Ridge-View-Dr_Atherton_CA_94027_M15945-47151 .

          The Federal Reserve (the Fed) raised the short term rate four times in 2018; the last raise was to 2.5% at their December meeting.  As of the May 1^st meeting, the Fed seems to have abandoned any further interest rate hikes in 2019.  As signs of a cooling American economy, many economists now feel the it is not whether the Fed will lower interest rate, but when it will do so.  Trade wars and tariffs are on the Fed directors’ minds.  The 30-year mortgage interest rates are now down to the 3.75-3.85% range, far down from their recent high of 4.94% in November 2018.

          Of the 192 sales in May 2019 there were 108 sales over $1,000,000 which equates to 56% of the total sales, up from 53.9% in April.  The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate as compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will pay more to live and invest in Santa Barbara.  According to Forbes the national average for all cash sales is about 20%; of the 165 sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County in April 2019 (they latest monthly data available), 26% were cash transactions.

          On May 28^th the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 134.1, up from 129.2 in April.  The highest recent Index levels were 136.4 in November 2018 and 137.9 in October 2018.  Lynn Franco, the Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, stated:  “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed. Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.”  The highest historical Consumer Confidence level was last seen in September 2000 when the Index stood at 142.5.

As for the cost of living, Numbeo compiles data for its cost of living index for major cities in the Western Hemisphere.  Numbeo’s indices are relative to New York City, which means that for New York City, each index should be 100%.  If another city has, for example, a rent index of 120, it means that on an average in that city rents are 20% more expensive than in New York City.  If a city has rent index of 70, that means on an average in that city rents are 30% less expensive than in New York City.  The highest City index on the 2019 list was New York (#1) @ 100, the highest City Index in California was San Francisco (#4) @ 91.67, the lowest City Index in California was Bakersfield (#45) @ 67.35, the lowest City Index in the United States was Boise, ID, (#79) @ 58.85 and the lowest City Index on the list was Caracas, Venezuela (#119) @ 25.01.  This is a very interesting comparison list to check out: Cost of Living in the Western Hemisphere .

Data from the latest May 2019 realtor.com report indicates that 5 of the 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets in the United States were in California, down from 6 in April, 7 in March and 8 in February.  The 20 top ranked California cities ranged from Sacramento as #5 to Santa Cruz as #19.  It is very interesting to note that once again all of California’s Hottest Real Estate Markets are located in the Northern part of the state.

Historically the highest January-May median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500.  The May 2019 median sales price was $1,042,500.  The current median sales price has now been hovering just below or just above the historic high for most of 2017, 2018 and now 2019.  This is an indication of a leveling off in market values along the South Coast of Santa Barbara.

Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service, as of June 6^th, in Goleta there were 74 active House/PUD listings and 35 pending sales, which equates to only a 2.1 month supply of listings for Buyers to choose from.  Generally under 3 months of inventory would be considered a Seller’s market and lower than 2 months points to a feverish Seller’s market.  Historically a 4 to 5 month supply of available inventory would indicate a well-balanced market between Buyers and Sellers and typically over a 6 or 7 month supply is considered to be a Buyer’s market with many listings for Buyers to choose from.  Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of June 6^th, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 4.7 month supply, Montecito had a 20.4 month supply, Santa Barbara had a 2 month supply and Hope Ranch had a 3.1 month supply.  These inventory statistics indicate that Goleta and Santa Barbara are in a Seller’s market, the Hope Ranch market is fairly balanced, the market in Carpinteria/Summerland is heading towards a Buyer’s market and the market in Montecito is entrenched in a Buyer’s market.  With a total of 128 House/PUD pending sales and only 128 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 3.3 (up from 2.6 in early May) month supply of House/PUD listings to choose from.  With a total of 60 Condominium pending sales and only 114 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 1.9 month supply (down from 2.1 in May) of Condominium listings for Buyers to choose from.  It is too soon to know how the Montecito disaster will affect the  Montecito values in the very long term, but the pressures on Hope Ranch and the upper price rangers of Santa Barbara and Goleta housing supply still seems to be very evident.  Buyers do seem to be moving much more cautiously than they did just a few months ago and some are taking their time assessing all their options along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County.  There is a very informative article by local economist Robert Niehaus on the impact of the January 9, 2018 debris flow on the Montecito real estate market, check it out at http://www.rdniehaus.com/rdn/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/RDN_Montecito-Debris-Flow_Housing-Market-Impact_03-19.pdf

The ramifications of the Federal tax cuts, planned increase in government spending, limits on mortgage interest deductions, rising insurance premiums, the trade tensions between China and Europe, the Federal $10,000 limit on State tax deductions and the memories of the fire damage & debris flows in Montecito are a concern to many Buyers along the South Coast of Santa Barbara.  The median sales priced Santa Barbara home would translate to a real estate tax of $14,190 per year.  Only time will tell how these new tax rules will play out and how they will affect our real estate values in the long run.  Supply and demand dynamics have and will affect the South Coast of the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market for a long time to come.

Feel free to contact me with any real estate related questions.

Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN

Compass

801 Chapala Street

Santa Barbara, CA 93101

805.689.2305

[email protected]

http://www.stantabler.com

CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980

Santa Barbara Homes