Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update
August 11, 2024
According to data obtained from the County Recorder’s Office by Fidelity National Title, the number of residential property sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast decreased by 6% in July 2024 with 92 sales as compared to July 2023. Out of the 92 sales in July 2024, 68 were houses or in planned unit developments (PUDs), the same as in July 2023. The median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,000,000, down 5% from 2023 and the average sale price was $3,740,100, up 32% from 2023. There were 24 Condominium sales in July 2024, down 30% from 2023. The median sale price of these Condominium sales was $954,750, up 6% from 2023, and the average sale price was $1,314,313, up 11% from 2023. As of July 2024, there were a total of 717 Year-to-Date residential sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast, up 9% from 2023. As of July 2024, the Year-to-Date median sale price for all residential sales was $1,765,000, up 5% from 2023, and the average sale price was $2,992,913, up 15% from 2023.
In Carpinteria, there were a total of 10 residential sales in July 2024, the same number of sales as in June. In July 2024 there were 6 House/PUD sales, up from 5 in June. In July 2024 the median price of these House/PUD sales was $1,912,500 and the average price was $10,803,475. In July there were 4 Condominium sales, down from 5 in June. In July the median price of these Condominium sales was $840,000 and the average sales price was $830,625. The lowest-priced Carpinteria sale in July 2024 was a Condominium on Foothill Road @ $675,000 and the highest was a beachfront Estate on Padaro Lane @ $49,598,500.
In Summerland, there were a total of 2 residential sales in July 2024, the same number of sales as in June. In July 2024 there were 2 House/PUD sales, the same number as in June. In July 2024 the median and average prices of these 2 House/PUD sales was $2,841,500. In July there were no Condominium sales in Summerland. The lowest-priced Summerland sale in July 2024 was a House on Golden Gate Avenue @ $2,318,000 and the highest was a House on Golden Gate Avenue @ $3,365,000.
In Montecito, there were a total of 11 residential sales in July 2024, down from 15 in June. In July 2024 there were 8 House/PUD sales, up from 6 in June. In July 2024 the median price of these House/PUD sales was $5,850,000 and the average price was $8,428,125. In July there were 3 Condominium sales, up from 2 in June. In July the median price of these Condominium sales was $3,500,000 and the average sales price was $3,008,333. The lowest-priced Montecito sale in July 2024 was a Condominium on Coast Village Road @ $1,525,000 and the highest was an Estate on Garden Lane @ $28,400,000.
In Santa Barbara, there were a total of 34 residential sales in July 2024, down from 48 in June. In July 2024 there were 28 House/PUD sales, down from 32 in July. In July 2024 the median price of these House/PUD sales was $2,080,750 and the average price was $2,243,095. In July there were 6 Condominium sales, down from 16 in June. In July the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,140,000 and average sale price was $1,430,833. The lowest-priced Santa Barbara sale in July 2024 was a House on S. Voluntario Street @ $915,000 and the highest was a House on Garden Street @ $6,350,000.
In Hope Ranch, there was 1 residential sale in June 2024, down from 2 in June. In July 2024 the 1 sale was an oceanfront property on Marina Drive @ $13,250,000. In June 2024 the median and average sale price was $13,250,000. There are no Condominiums or PUDs in Hope Ranch.
In Goleta, there were a total of 34 residential sales in July 2024, down from 43 in June. In July 2024 there were 23 House/PUD sales, down from 27 in June. In July 2024 the median price of these House/PUD sales was $1,595,000 and the average price was $1,753,970. In July there were 11 Condominium sales, down from 16 in June. In July the median price of these Condominium sales was $890,000 and the average sales price was $964,636. The lowest-priced Goleta sale in July 2024 was a Condominium on Hollister Avenue @ $655,000 and the highest was a PUD on Rancho Asoleado Drive @ $3,600,000.
Analysis
As of August 1st in the Santa Barbara MLS, there were 218 active House/PUD listings, up from 146 in July, and 41 active Condominium listings, up from 39 in July, available along the Santa Barbara South Coast. The current housing supply has eased up a bit, but will still continue to put pressure on housing values. Compare our current supply levels to the years 2007 through 2011 when the total number of active listings for Buyers to choose from fluctuated between 734 and 1,026. Historically the highest number of active listings along the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were an astonishing 1,297 active listings available for Buyers to choose from.
Inventory of available properties remains relatively low and this is creating tough competition among Buyers with bidding wars pushing up prices. Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service sales, during July there were 64 residential sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County. Of the 64 sales, 15 closed over the asking price and 7 closed at the asking price. Only 3 listings sold $100,000+ over their asking prices and the most notable of these sales were De La Guerra Road which sold $100,000 over asking, Linden Avenue which sold $117,100 over asking and San Leandro Lane which sold $1,200,000 over asking. Santa Barbara overbids are tame compared to Silicon Valley sales in July where at least 65 properties sold for $200,000 or more above their asking prices, with 20 of these homes fetching over $500,000 above asking! In July 2024, 44.4% of homes in Los Angeles, California sold above asking price, so Santa Barbara’s 23% of sales over asking price is roughly only half of that. Santa Barbara Buyers are once again seeing multiple-offer competitions, so they are willing to pay a premium price for a home with great amenities and in a great location. People enjoy living along the Santa Barbara South Coast to enjoy our Mediterranean climate and casual lifestyle.
According to NAR Economists’ Outlook, all-cash home buyers have trended up significantly in recent months. Since October 2022, all-cash home buyers who did not finance their recent home purchase have been more than 25% of the sales. In June 2024 the percentage of Santa Barbara all-cash buyers stood at 34% of all residential sales. In highly sought out areas, including Santa Barbara, cash Buyers represent a much higher percentage of sales: 69% in the City of Carmel, 64% in Manhattan (New York), 57% in Pebble Beach, and 54% in Pacific Grove. On the Santa Barbara South Coast in May 2024, the percentage of cash sales was 44%, down from 50% in April.
The Federal Reserve indicated on July 31st that greater progress has been made in reducing inflation to its 2% target, a sign that the central bank is moving closer toward cutting its key interest rate for the first time in four years. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for the central bank’s first rate cut in four years, citing greater progress toward lower inflation as well as a cooler job market that no longer threatens to overheat the economy. Still, the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.3%, despite calls from some economists and Democratic politicians to implement a cut Wednesday. Instead, Powell said that, if inflation continues to fall, “a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table” when the Fed next meets Sept. 17-18. “We’re getting closer to the point at which it’ll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate,” Powell said, “but we’re not quite at that point.”
Mortgage interest rates have mostly doubled since the beginning of 2022. As of August 8th, you could lock in an $838,350 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage at 6.47% (down from 6.95% in July), and are now at the lowest point since May 2023. Historically the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in February 2021 at 2.65% and that rate was matched yet again in July 2021 during the pandemic. The highest historical 30-year fixed-rate interest rate was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate over the last 50 years has been 7.74%, so current rates are still lower than that average. Mortgage rates of 8.03% in October 2023 were at a 23-year high following all-time lows reached just three years ago highlighting the effect that financing costs have on the housing market, a particularly rate-sensitive sector of the economy. As a comparison, a mortgage payment for an $838,350 loan in 1981 would have been $13,066/month, the payment in June 2021 would have been $3,378/month, and as of August 8th 2024, that payment would be $5,282/month. Buyers will have to accept that mortgage interest rates are not going down dramatically anytime soon, but they are heading lower at the moment.
With higher mortgage rates, America’s housing market is stuck in a “mortgage rate lock-in effect,” where homeowners are unwilling to sell since it means they’ll have to trade in their low-interest-rate loan for one at today’s higher rates. A new report by U.S. News & World Report has found that this lock-in effect is much worse in some states than others. It all depends on the state’s “lock-in gap,” which is the average mortgage interest rate the homeowners are currently paying subtracted from the rate available to them for purchasing another property. This gap can fluctuate based on location, due to things like local real estate laws or the number of lenders in the area. Market rate on new mortgages vs. average rate on existing mortgages gap: White States @ 2.55% to Dark Green States @ 3.45%. California’s gap stands @ 3.075%.
Bank-owned sales on Santa Barbara’s South Coast have been very rare; in all of 2021 and 2022, there were only 4 bank-owned sales. In 2023 and 2024 there were no bank-owned sales and only 1 short sale of a House on W. Figueroa Street. Locally there are no bank-owned properties for sale at this time, and none are on the radar, but there is one short-sale listing currently on the market; a Condominium on Hollister Avenue. According to the latest (February 2024) MBA National Delinquency Survey (NDS), the overall delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.88% of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. The delinquency rate was up 26 basis points from the third quarter of 2023 but down 8 basis points from one year earlier. The historical average for the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate from 1979 through 2023 is 5.25%. To review the entire Mortgage Bankers Survey, check out this link: https://newslink.mba.org/mba-tag/mba-national-delinquency-survey/ .
Of the 92 residential sales in July 2024, 76 were over $1,000,000 which equates to 82.6% of the total sales, down from 85.8% in June. The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will pay more to live and invest in Santa Barbara. According to PropertyShark’s once-a-year report (November 2023), California had 6 (down from 7 in 2022) of the 10 most expensive median-priced ZIP codes in the country. Montecito’s 93108 ZIP code came in at #4 (up from #8 in 2022) of the most expensive ZIP codes in the USA, even beating out Beverly Hills. Check out the full report: https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us
U.S. News compiled surveys on the 24 most expensive places to live in the United States during the last year. Their surveys were based on the median gross rent and annual housing costs for mortgage-paying homeowners of each city. California had 10 of the 25 cities listed that require the most wealth to live comfortably: Santa Barbara came in at #6. To see the entire article, check out https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/most-expensive-places-to-live
WalletHub assessed the states where people experience the most stress based on Work-related, Money-related, Family, Health, and Safety-related stress……the top 7 most stressful states are West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, and Mississippi. The least stressful states are Utah, Hawaii, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, Connecticut, and #7 California! To review this article, check out https://wallethub.com/edu/happiest-states/6959
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US eased by one point from the previous month to 42 in July of 2024, the lowest in the current year, and below market expectations of 44. The decline in house-builders’ sentiment took place amid the expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer, pressuring both mortgage demand and business conditions for constructors and their necessary development loans. The gauge measuring present sales conditions fell by one point to 47 and the traffic of prospective buyers fell by one point to 27. On the other hand, expected sales in the next six months edged higher by one point to 48. To review the entire article and graphs, check out https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in July to 100.3 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. “Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year. Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.” To review the entire article check out https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
As for the worldwide cost of living as of August 1st, Expatistan compiled an index of 164 major worldwide metropolitan areas. In the United States, the most expensive area to live in is #3 New York City with a @ 226 Price Index score (the least expensive gallon of regular gas costs $3.39/gallon) and the least expensive is #114 Cedar Rapids, Iowa @ 106 ($3.12/gallon). Searching the entire state of California, the least expensive gallon of gas can be found in Orange County @ $3.39/gallon. Of the top 25 most expensive areas worldwide, two are in California; #5 San Francisco @ 207 ($4.29/gallon), and #24 Sacramento @ 163 ($3.89/gallon). The most expensive area to live in the world is #1 London (England) @ 237 ($5.79/gallon) and the least expensive is #164 Yogyakarta (Indonesia) @ 37 ($3.14/gallon). Santa Barbara is not on the list as Expatistan does not rate it as a major metropolitan area. Local gas prices as low as $4.59/gallon are similar to other California coastal areas. Expatistan’s Cost of Living Index is an interesting way to compare the cost of living in cities around the world: https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index
According to Realtor.com economist Joel Berner’s July 27th report, “The housing market is showing subtle signs of change this week, with new listings falling, total inventory growing, and homes spending longer on the market. Listing prices remain sticky and high, but the supply side of the equation hints at larger adjustments coming than what we saw this week. With broader economic indicators remaining strong, there is hope that mortgage prices will soon fall and breathe life into the currently slow market, avoiding the major correction in prices that the inventory metrics suggest is likely. 1) The median listing price fell by 0.2% year-over-year. 2) New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down this week by 2.3% from one year ago. 3) Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 37.1% above year-ago levels. 4) Homes spent five days more on the market compared to this time last year.”
According to CoreLogic’s August 6th report “Although this is the 149th consecutive month that the U.S. has seen year-over-year home price gains, the pace of growth is continuing to cool. Price growth increased nationally by 4.7% in June when compared with a year prior, and only one state posted double-digit gains this month. Next summer, prices are projected to slow further, only growing by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis.” To see the whole report, check out: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-price-insights-august-2024/
Historically the highest Year-to-Date median sale price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500, but this is now ancient history. The median sale price of all residential sales Year-To-Date in 2024 is $1,765,000, up 4% from 2023. The median sale price had been hovering near 2007’s historic high for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019, then started an upward climb in 2020, accelerating in 2021 and into the first half of 2022 before leveling off throughout most of 2023. Now in 2024, the median sale price is climbing at a much slower rate. The average sale price of all residential sales Year-To-Date in 2024 is $2,992,913, up 13% from from 2023.
Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data, as of August 1st in the City of Santa Barbara, there were 89 active House/PUD listings (up from 67 in July) and 39 pending sales (up from 36 in July), which equates to a 2.3-month supply (up from 1.9 in July) of listings for Buyers to choose from. Generally, a 1-month supply would indicate the listings would all be sold within one month. A less than 1-month supply of inventory indicates a feverish Seller’s market, a 1-to-2-month supply indicates a heated Seller’s market and a 2-to-4-month supply would be considered a basic Seller’s market where Buyer demand is still high and inventory is scarce. Historically a 4-to-6-month supply of available inventory would indicate a fairly well-balanced, normal market between Buyers and Sellers. More than a 6-month supply is considered to be a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful; Buyers will be slower to make decisions as they compare the numerous properties on the market. Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data as of August 1st, Carpinteria/Summerland has a 4.3-month supply (up from 4.2 in July), Montecito has an amazing 32.5-month supply (up very significantly from 4.4 in July), Goleta has a 1.4-month supply (up from 1.1 in July) and Hope Ranch has a 3.3-month supply (down from 6.5 in July). These inventory statistics indicate that Goleta remains in a Heated Seller’s market. Carpinteria/Summerland remain in a fairly well-balanced market. Hope Ranch has moved into a Basic Seller’s market. Montecito has moved far into an amazing Buyer’s market. With a combined total of 66 House/PUD pending sales (up from 63 in July) and 218 active listings (up from 146 in July) along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 3.2-month supply (up from 2.3 in July) of House/PUD listings from which Buyers can choose. With a combined total of 28 Condominium pending sales (up from 24 in July) and only 41 active listings (up from 39 in July) on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 1.5-month supply (down from 1.6 in July) of Condominium listings from which Buyers can choose. By removing the incredibly high number of active higher priced (65) Montecito listings and the (2) pending Montecito listings from the mix, there is only a 2.3 month supply for Buyers to choose from along the rest of South Coast of Santa Barbara County!
While concerns about the pandemic’s economic impact have diminished, there are many other concerns for many Buyers and Sellers. These include the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, continued tensions in other parts of the Middle East, inflation, rising insurance premiums, higher mortgage interest rates, and still the possibility of a recession or a “soft landing”. Also as we get closer to the election, the markets may become more volatile. Another major concern for Buyers and Sellers is the scarcity of homeowners’ insurance coverage, especially since State Farm, Nationwide, Kemper, Marine America, Trans-Pacific, and Allstate have refused to issue new and are canceling existing home insurance policies. California’s Proposition 19 allows homeowners aged 55+ to transfer their existing real estate tax base to a home anywhere in the State; this newer law may encourage some older Sellers who wish to sell their current homes and downsize. Lack of inventory means high demand and therefore higher prices, so over many years there has been a surge in property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast. While market corrections may still negatively impact property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast, the impact is expected to be less severe compared to many other areas in the state and country. New 2024 listings may remain on the market just a bit longer than in 2023. In July, I noted fewer multiple offers on well-priced properties as compared to June (when I saw 10+ offers on certain listings). Home values in the Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market continue to be supported by supply and demand dynamics due to our market’s persistent low listing inventory; I expect this value dynamic to continue into the foreseeable future.
Review the attached list of the 92 properties sold on the Santa Barbara South Coast in July 2024 and feel free to contact me for information on specific sales in our area.
Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN
Compass
801 Chapala Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
805.689.2305
CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980
Realtor of the Year
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