Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update
October 16, 2019
Direct from the County Recorder’s Office by way of Fidelity National Title, the total number of residential sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County was up 6% from 147 in September 2018 to 156 in September 2019. In September 2019 there were 106 House/PUD sales, down 18% from 2018, with a median sales price of $1,225,000 and an average sales price of $2,029,354. In September 2019 there were 50 Condominium sales, up 9% from 2018, with a median sales price of $694,500 and an average sales price of $716,480. The total 2019 Year-to-Date sales were 1,482, up 8% from 2018, with a median sales price of $1,004,500 and an average sales price of $1,535,618.
In Carpinteria there were a total of 11 sales in September 2019. The median sales price of the 8 House/PUD sales was $1,472,500 and the average sales price was $3,562,500. In September 2019 the median sales price of the 3 Condominium sales was $475,000 and the average sales price was $485,000. The lowest priced Carpinteria sale in September 2019 was a Condominium on Sawyer Avenue @ $445,000 and the highest was an oceanfront House on Padaro Lane @ $15,050,000.
In Summerland there were a total of 2 sales in September 2019. The median and average sales price of the 1 House/PUD sale was $1,220,000. In September 2019 the median and average sales price of the 1 Condominium sale was $785,000. The lowest priced Summerland sale in September 2019 was a Condominium on Foothill Road @ $785,000 and the highest was a House on Varley Street @ $1,220,000.
In Montecito there were a total of 21 sales in September 2019. The median sales price of the 19 House/PUD sales was $2,900,000 and the average sales price was $3,886,447. In September 2019 the median and average sales price of the 2 Condominiums was $1,230,000. The lowest priced Montecito sale in September 2019 was a Condominium on Coast Village Road @ $775,000 and the highest was an Estate on Sycamore Canyon Road @ $9,500,000.
In Santa Barbara there were a total of 64 sales in September 2019. The median sales price of the 41 House/PUD sales was $1,162,000 and the average sales price was $1,293,390. In September 2019 the median sales price of the 23 Condominium sales was $678,500 and the average sales price was $766,478. The lowest priced Santa Barbara sale in September 2019 was a Condominium on W. Islay Street @ $465,000 and the highest was an oceanfront House on Sea Ledge Lane @ $5,800,000.
In Hope Ranch there were a total of 4 sales in September 2019. The median sales price of the 4 House sales was $4,742,500 and the average sales price was $5,122,000. There are no Condominiums or PUD’s in Hope Ranch. The lowest priced Hope Ranch sale in September 2019 was an Estate on Via Dichosa @ $4,378,000 and the highest was an Estate on Marina Drive @ $6,625,000.
In Goleta there were a total of 54 sales in September 2019. The median sales price of the 33 House/PUD sales was $960,000 and the average sales price was $1,152,485. In September 2019 the median sales price of the 21 Condominium sales was $718,000 and the average sales price was $642,619. The lowest priced Goleta sale in September 2019 was a Condominium on Armitos Avenue @ $360,000 and the highest was a House on Oakside Way @ $2,885,000.
Analysis
A limited supply of available properties along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is keeping values higher than one might expect as compared to many inland areas of California and most areas of the United States. The appreciation rate along the South Coast has softened and multiple offer situations are now few and far between. On the South Coast of Santa Barbara County as of October 4th there were 438 active House/PUD listings (down from 465 in September) and 113 active Condominium listings available for sale (up from 106 in September). Generally, there is much more inventory available in the higher price ranges than in the lower ranges as 178 (41%) of the 438 active House/PUD listings are located in Montecito and Hope Ranch. Compare these low totals to the years 2007 to 2011 when the total number of available listings ranged between 734 and 1,026. Historically the highest number of available listings along the South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were 1,297 listings available for sale!
After no bank-owned sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara since September 2018, there were 3 in March 2019, 1 in April, 3 in May and zero in both June & July and 1 in August. In September 2019 there was only 1 bank-owned sale: a Condominium for $579,500. As of October 4th there is 1 bank-owned listing available for sale: a House on Painted Cave Road @ $2,495,000 (which has been on the market since March). There are no bank-owned listings in escrow. During the last few years, the foreclosure activity along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County has diminished dramatically; only 1 of the 174 sales in September 2019 was bank-owned. To check out California’s foreclosure by county, clink on this RealtyTrac link: California Foreclosure Trends by County .
As of July 2019 (the latest data available from CoreLogic), the highest recorded County median sales price in California was in San Francisco County @ $1,350,000 (up 2.9% from 2018) and the lowest recorded County median sales price was in Siskiyou County @ $193,750 (up 7.6% from 2018). The median sales price in the County of Santa Barbara was $582,000 (up 13% from 2018) and the median sales price in the City of Santa Barbara was $1,167,500 (up 15% from 2018). The lowest median sales price recorded in any California city was in Paradise in Butte County @ $45,000 (down 81.9% from 2018) and the highest was in Atherton in San Clara County @ $8,350,000 (up 72.4 from 2018). You could buy 196 median priced houses in Paradise, 14 in the County of Santa Barbara or 7 in the City of Santa Barbara for the same price as 1 in Atherton. If you care to see a house you can buy in the Paradise area for $45,000 check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1382-Delia-Way_Paradise_CA_95969_M25170-41191?view=qv . If you care to see a house you can buy in Atherton for $7,630,000 check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/107-Reservoir-Rd_Atherton_CA_94027_M17052-64266?view=qv .
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) raised the short term rate four times last year; the last raise was to 2.5% in December 2018. As signs of a cooling American economy, world economy, trade tensions and possibly Presidential influence, at their July 30-31 meeting the Fed lowered their overnight interest rate by .25% to 2.25% and at their September 17-18th meeting they again reduced the rate to 1.75% to 2%. That is the first time the Fed has cut the interest rates since 2008, at the beginning of the Great Recession. It now seems to be toss up as to if the Fed will again cut the overnight interest rate at their October 29-30th meeting. The average of the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate as of October 3rd was 3.62% range, far below their recent November 2018 highs of 4.94%. If you borrowed $600,000 last November, your monthly payment would be $464 higher than it would be today; that would be a savings of $5,568 a year! To put this all in historical perspective, the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in 2012 @ 3.31%, and the highest was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%.
Of the 156 sales in September 2019 there were 77 over $1,000,000 which equates to 49% of the total sales, down from 52% in August but up from 30% in July, 27% in June and 26% in May. The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate as compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will pay more to live and invest in Santa Barbara. According to Forbes the national average for all cash real estate sales averages 20%; on the South Coast in September 2019, 23% were cash sales, down from 30% in August. See the attached for the total list of the 156 properties sold on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County in September 2019.
On September 24th the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 125.1, down from 134.2 in August. The highest recent Index levels recorded were 136.4 in November 2018 and 137.9 in October 2018. Lynn Franco, the Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, stated: “Consumers were less positive in their assessment of current conditions and their expectations regarding the short-term outlook also weakened. The escalation in trade and tariff tensions in late August appears to have rattled consumers. However, this pattern of uncertainty and volatility has persisted for much of the year and it appears confidence is plateauing. While confidence could continue hovering around current levels for months to come, at some point this continued uncertainty will begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.” Historically the highest Consumer Confidence Index level was recorded in September 2000 when the Index stood at 142.5.
As for the cost of living, Expatistan has compiled data from 90 major metropolitan areas in North America. Expatistan’s list of USA metropolitan areas indicates Mountain View, CA (beating out #3 New York City) is the most expensive with a score of 266 and Greensboro, NC is the least expensive with a score of 130. Of the top 20 most expensive areas, 8 were in California: #1 Mountain View @ 266, #2 Palo Alto @ 265, #4 San Francisco @ 246, #5 San Jose @ 218, #7 Oakland @ 216, #10 Los Angeles @ 209, #17 San Diego @ 188 and #18 Sacramento @ 187. Santa Barbara is not on the list since it is not rated as a major metropolitan area. This is a very interesting list to check out: https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index/north-america .
As per the August 15, 2019 article by Nicolas Bedo at Realtor.com®, his Luxury Home Index analyzes 82 luxury markets through April 2019. Of the top 20 most expensive Luxury Markets in the nation, California is home to 10 of those Markets. Nicolas Bedo writes “California Central Coast luxury markets continued their ascent, outpacing their respective mid-market price growth and outperforming Bay Area markets. Santa Barbara, Calif. saw price declines at the start of 2019, but grew by 8.9 percent, reaching an entry-level price point of $2.6 million. The mid-market price growth in Santa Barbara is flat year-over-year. Furthermore, million dollar sales in Santa Barbara are up 6.5 percent year-over-year.” Check out his latest article: https://www.realtor.com/research/tag/luxury-homes/
Historically the highest Year-to-Date median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500. The 2019 Year-to-Date median sales price was $1,004,500. The current median sales price has now been hovering just below or just above the historic high for most of 2017, 2018 and now three quarters of the way into 2019. This seems to be an indication of a leveling off in market values along the South Coast of Santa Barbara.
Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service, as of October 4th, in the City of Santa Barbara there were 162 active House/PUD listings and 57 pending sales, which equates to only a 3 month supply of listings for Buyers to choose from. Generally up to 3 months of inventory would be considered a Seller’s market where demand is high and inventory is scarce; lower than 2 months of inventory points to a more feverish Seller’s market. Historically a 4 to 5 month supply of available inventory would indicate a well-balanced market between Buyers and Sellers. Typically over a 6 month supply is considered to be a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful; Buyers are slower to make decisions and want to see everything on the market. Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of October 4th, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 5.1 month supply, Montecito had a 4.8 month supply, Goleta had a 2.1 month supply and Hope Ranch had a 16.5 month supply. These inventory statistics indicate that Santa Barbara and Goleta are in a Seller’s market, Carpinteria/Summerland and Montecito are close to being in a balanced market and Hope Ranch is in a Buyer’s market. With a total of 122 House/PUD pending sales and only 438 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a 3.6 (down from 3.8 in September) month supply of House/PUD listings to choose from. With a total of 52 Condominium pending sales and only 113 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2.2 month supply (up from 1.9 in September) of Condominium listings for Buyers to choose from. Buyers do seem to be moving much more cautiously than they did just a few months ago and some are taking their time assessing all their options along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County. There is a very informative article by local economist Robert Niehaus on the impact of the January 9, 2018 debris flow on the Montecito real estate market, check it out at http://www.rdniehaus.com/rdn/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/RDN_Montecito-Debris-Flow_Housing-Market-Impact_03-19.pdf .
The ramifications of the Federal tax cuts, planned increase in government spending, limits on mortgage interest deductions, rising insurance premiums, recent stock market corrections, trade tensions between China, Canada, Mexico and Europe, the Federal $10,000 limit on State tax deductions and the memories of the fire damage & debris flows in Montecito are a concern to many Buyers along the South Coast of Santa Barbara. The median sales priced Santa Barbara home would translate to a real estate tax of $15,000+/- per year. Only time will tell how all these influences will play out and how they will affect Santa Barbara neighborhood values in the long run. As always, supply and demand dynamics have and will affect the South Coast of the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market for a long time to come.
Feel free to contact me with any real estate related questions.
Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN
Compass
801 Chapala Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
805.689.2305
CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980
Realtor of the Year
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