Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update
June 16, 2018
Direct from the County Recorder’s Office, the overall number of property sales on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County was up 8% from 164 in May 2017 to 173 in May 2018, the median sales price was up 1% from $1,015,000 in May 2017 to $1,025,000 in May 2018 and the average sales price was up 4% from $1,523,168 in May 2017 to $1,577,132 in May 2018. In May 2018 there were 114 House/PUD sales with a median sales price of $1,125,000 and an average sales price of $1,937,456. In May 2018 there were 59 Condominium sales with a median sales price of $710,000 and an average sales price of $880,912.
In Carpinteria the number of sales was up 1.1% from 14 in May 2017 to 16 in May 2018. The median sales price was down 47% from $1,612,500 in May 2017 to $855,000 in May 2018 and the average sales price was down 28% from $1,315,899 in May 2017 to $950,906 in May 2018. The lowest priced Carpinteria sale in May 2018 was a Condominium on Linden Avenue for $485,000 and the highest sale was a House on Shepard Mesa Road for $2,050,000.
In Summerland the number of sales was up 100% from 1 in May 2017 to 2 in May 2018. The median sales price was down 22% from $1,325,000 in May 2017 to $1,029,500 in May 2018 and the average sales price was down 1% from $1,325,500 in May 2017 to $1,311,333 in May 2018. The lowest priced Summerland sale in May 2018 was a House on Whitney Avenue for $1,029,500 and the highest sale was another House on Whitney Avenue for $2,337,500.
In Montecito the number of sales was down 32% from 25 in May 2017 to 17 in May 2018. The median sales price was down 16% from $3,200,000 in May 2017 to $2,700,000 in May 2018 and the average sales price was up 19% from $3,484,200 in May 2017 to $4,162,559 in May 2018. The lowest priced Montecito sale in May 2018 was a Condominium on Jameson Lane for $690,000 and the highest sale was a House on Channel Drive for $11,500,000.
In Santa Barbara the number of sales was down 19% from 100 in May 2017 to 81 in May 2018. The median sales price was up 15% from $1,015,000 in May 2017 to $1,170,000 in May 2018 and the average sales price was up 5% from $1,245,875 in May 2017 to $1,302,500 in May 2018. The lowest priced Santa Barbara sale in May 2018 was a Condominium on Miramonte Drive for $400,000 and the highest sale was a House on Sea Cliff for $6,495,000.
In Hope Ranch the number of sales was up 50% from 2 in May 2017 to 3 in May 2018. The median sales price was up 418% from $1,930,000 in May 2017 to $10,000,000 in May 2018 and the average sales price was up 410% from $1,930,500 in May 2017 to $9,852,667 in May 2018. The lowest priced Hope Ranch sale in May 2018 was a House on Laguna Blanca Drive for $2,780,000 and the highest sale was an Estate on Roble Drive for $16,778,000.
In Goleta the number of sales was up 257% from 21 in May 2017 to 54 in May 2018. The median sales price was up 32% from $664,000 in May 2017 to $877,500 in May 2018 and the average sales price was up 37% from $652,905 in May 2017 to $897,005 in May 2018. The lowest priced Goleta sale in May 2018 was a Condominium on Cannon Green for $325,000 and the highest sale was a House on La Goleta Road for $2,295,000.
A limited supply of available properties along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is keeping values higher than one might expect as compared to many inland areas of California and most areas of the United States. On the South Coast of Santa Barbara County as of June 15th there were only 415 active House/PUD listings and 138 active Condominium listings available for purchase. Generally, there is much more inventory available in the higher price ranges than in the lower ranges as 120 (29%) of the 415 active House/PUD listings are located in Montecito and Hope Ranch. Compare these low totals to the years 2007 to 2011 when the total number of available listings ranged between 734 and 1,026. Historically the highest number of available listings along the South Coast was recorded in June of 1992 when there were 1,297 listings available for sale; now that was a Buyer’s market!
In May 2018 on the South Coast of Santa Barbara there was 1 bank-owned property sale, an estate on Hot Springs Road for $8,875,000. As of June 15th there were 4 bank-owned listings in escrow: a house on San Marcos Road for $574,900, a house on Gillespie Way for $590,000, a house on Alphonse Street for $709,900 and a house on Hot Springs Road for $1,445,000. As of June 15th there were no bank-owned listing available for sale. Compare our market’s under 1% in foreclosure sales as a percentage of homes sold to 17% in New Jersey and 6% nationwide. Check out Realty Trac’s list: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/ca .
As of April 2018 (the latest data available from CoreLogic) the highest recorded median County sales price in California was in San Francisco County @ $1,350,000 (up 12% from 2017) and the lowest recorded median County sales price was in Tehama County @ $195,500 (up 18.5% from 2017). The median sales price in the County of Santa Barbara was $550,000 (up 4.6% from 2017) and the median sales price in the City of Santa Barbara was $1,030,000 (down 4.2% from 2017). The lowest median sales price in any California city was in Vallecito in Calaveras County @ $32,500 (down 88.4% from 2017) and the highest was in Atherton in San Mateo County @ $6,100,000 (up 29.1% from 2017). You could buy 188 median priced houses in Vallecito (maybe the whole town), 11 in the County of Santa Barbara or 5.9 in the City of Santa Barbara for the same price as 1 house in Atherton. If you care to see what you can buy in Vallecito for $210,000, check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2955-Bowling-Green-Dr_Vallecito_CA_95251_M25612-41592 . If you care to see what you can buy in Atherton for $5,998,000 check out https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/198-Toyon-Rd_Atherton_CA_94027_M29615-59198 .
The Federal Reserve raised the short term lending rate to banks at their June 13th meeting and hinted at the possibility of two more hikes by the end of 2018. Strong retail sales numbers and unemployment rolls falling to near a 44 year low are underscoring the Fed’s optimism for the U.S. economy. Mortgage rates are still below 5% and are near historic lows, but they may not stay that way for long.
Of the 173 sales in May 2018, 89 of them were over $1,000,000 which equates to 68.5% of the total sales. The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate as compared to most areas of the United States, but again many people will pay more to live and invest in Santa Barbara. Of the 173 sales in May 2018, 27 (16%) were cash transactions with no mortgages involved.
On May 29th the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 128, up from 125.6 in April. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, stated “Consumer short-term expectations improved modestly, suggesting that the pace of growth over the coming months is not likely to gain any significant momentum.”
For May 2018, data from Realtor.com indicates that only 4 (down from 13 in February, 11 in March and 6 in April) of the 20 Hottest Housing Markets in in the United States were in California, ranging from San Francisco as #3 to Sacramento as #12. These are the markets seeing the quickest sales and most buyer demand online; Santa Barbara has not placed on this list in a long time. To review the article: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/hottest-markets-u-s-real-estate-april-2018/ . Looking at the still heated Seller’s market in San Francisco, it is not unusual to see listings generating multiple offers and being bid up much higher than the asking price. In May, the highest overbid was $1,600,000 over the asking price of $7,995,000, which is the highest overbid so far in 2018. Many articles have been written stating that California’s seemingly endless grip on the top 20 markets has ended, at least for now; https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/hottest-markets-u-s-real-estate-april-2018/ . It will be interesting to see what California’s Top 20 ratio turns out to be in June.
Historically the highest historical year-to-date May median sales price recorded on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2006 at $980,000 until May 2017 came along with a median sales price of $986,000 and then up to $999,500 in February 2018. The median sales price was up in May 2018 to $1,015,000, much higher than those historical prices. The South Coast of Santa Barbara market now has risen into uncharted territory.
The decline in the frequency of owners deciding to market their homes has played another critical role in pressurizing the many markets; owners are now staying in their homes at a median rate of 10 years, the highest level since the National Association of Realtors started tracking this statistic in 1985. Take for example the available inventory as of June 15th in Goleta where there were only 56 active House/PUD listings and 33 pending sales, which equates to only a 1.7 month supply of properties for Buyers to choose from. Generally under 3 months of inventory would be considered a Seller’s market and lower than 2 months points to a feverish Seller’s market. Historically a 4 to 5 month supply of available inventory would indicate a well-balanced market between Buyers and Sellers and typically over a 6 or 7 month supply would be considered a Buyer’s market. Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data and as of June 15th, Carpinteria/Summerland had a 4.4 month supply, Montecito had an 6.9 month supply, Santa Barbara had a 2.8 month supply and Hope Ranch had only a 5.8 month supply. These inventory statistics indicate that Santa Barbara and Goleta markets are still tilting in the Seller’s favor, Hope Ranch is neutral while Carpinteria/Summerland and Montecito are in or are shifting towards a Buyer’s market. With a total of 130 House/PUD pending sales and only 415 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is only a combined 3.2 month supply of House/PUD listings for Buyers to choose from. With a total of 60 Condominium pending sales and only 138 active listings on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2.3 month supply of condominium listings for Buyers to choose from. In the short term it seems apparent that the disaster in Montecito has dampened demand in that area of the market as there is a 7.2 month supply of active listings for sale in March and now in May a 6.9 month supply of active listings. The reverse is true in Hope Ranch where there was a 13.6 month supply of active listings in early January, then a 3.6 month supply in February, a 2.8 month supply in March and now up a bit to a 5.8 month supply of active listings to choose from as of June 15th It is too soon to know how the Montecito disaster will affect Montecito values in the long term, but it has put pressure on the Hope Ranch market.
The ramifications of the Federal tax cuts and planned increase in government spending remains to be seen. Only time will tell, but available inventory still remains near an all time low. Supply and demand dynamics have and will continue to affect the South Coast of Santa Barbara Real Estate Market for a long time.
Feel free to contact me with any real estate related questions.
Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN
1002 Anacapa Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980