Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update

July 9, 2010

House & Planned Unit Development Market

The inventory is up from May 2010 when there were 615 Home/PUDs available for purchase with a median list price of about $1,700,000 to about 650 Home/PUDs on the market in June with a $1,600,000 median list price.  I feel this uptick in inventory is due to the summer season when historically many Sellers begin marketing their properties.

In the Carpinteria/Summerland area the number of home sales is up with 35 this year compared to 26 in 2009 and the median sales price has drifted upward from $643,000 in 2009 to $675,000 in 2010.  What has dropped substantially this year is the number of new escrows falling from 39 in 2009 to 27 in 2010.

In Montecito there have been 57 sales this year compared to 52 in 2010 and the median sales price has risen slightly from $2,330,000 in 2009 to $2,480,000 in 2010.  The future looks bright in Montecito since the number of escrows is up from 54 in 2009 to 72 in 2010 with the median list price on these new escrows holding steady at about $2,600,000 for both years.

In the East of State area the number of sales is up from 74 in 2009 to 112 this year; the median sales price is up from just under $900,000 in 2009 to about $960,000 this year. The number of new escrows is also way up this year so things should continue surging forward in the area.

On the West Side of State Street the number of sales is up from 78 in 2009 to 86 this year with the median sales price also up from $735,000 in 2009 to approximately $815,000 this year.  The number of new escrows is also way ahead of 2009.

In Hope Ranch the number of sales is up from 7 in 2009 to 10 this year with the median sales price going from $2,550,000 in 2009 to the current $3,230,000.  It appears that sales may have stalled in Hope Ranch since the number of escrows is holding at 11 in 2010 compared to 10 last year and the median list price on those new escrows in 2010 is just under $2,000,000.

In the Goleta South area the number of sales is up from 45 in 2009 to 51 this year and the median sales price has dipped from $700,000 in 2009 to $650,000 this year.  It looks like things are slowing in the area with the number of new escrows just slightly ahead of the 2009, but on the up side the median list price on those escrows is approximately $700,000.

In the Goleta North area the number of sales is up from 73 in 2009 to 83 this year with the median sales price also rising from $704,000 in 2009 to $735,000 this year. The new escrows are way up, going from 78 in 2009 to over 100 in 2010.

Condominium Market

For the Santa Barbara South Coast condominium market there were 33 sales in June 2010, down from 37 in May and up from 32 in April.  The median sales price is down for the month from $467,000 in May 2010 to $439,000 in June.  The average sales price dropped substantially from $600,000 in May to approximately $500,000 in June.  For June 2010, 27 of the sales were below $550,000 with only 6 above that mark and no sales above $1,000,000.

In Carpinteria/Summerland there have been 36 sales in 2010 compared to 19 last year and the median sales price has dipped slightly from $400,000 in 2009 to the current $393,100.  The number of new escrows is also way up from 23 in 2009 with a median list of $420,00 to 35 this year with a median list price of $409,000.

In Montecito there have been 10 sales this year with a median sales price of $1,062,500 compared to only 1 sale in 2009 for $679,000.  The number of new escrows is also up from just 1 in 2009 to 12 this year.  Sales should remain substantially ahead of 2009 in Montecito for the foreseeable future.

On the East Side of State Street there have been 38 sales in 2010 compared to 29 last year with the median sales price down from $505,000 in 2009 to $442,500 this year.  The number of new escrows for 2010 is 38 compared to 33 last year with the median list price on those new escrows going down from $539,000 in 2009 to the current $499,000.

On the West Side of State Street the number of sales has gone up from 29 in 2009 to 40 in 2010 while the median sales price has dropped from $520,000 last year to $496,000 this year. The number of new escrows is also up from 36 last year with a median list price of $519,000 to 49 this year with a median list price of $515,000.

In Goleta South the number of sales is down from 32 in 2009 to 24 in 2010 with the median sales price of $419,500 last year down to $357,500 this year.  The number of new escrows is also down from 44 in 2009 to 28 this year.  This decline in activity is primarily due to the lack of inventory in the area; currently there are only 6 condominiums available for purchase in all of Goleta South with a median list price of $519,000.

In Goleta North the number of sales is level at 20 for both 2009 and 2010.  The median sales price has remained relatively solid at $408,500 in 2009 compared to $405,000 in 2010. The number of new escrows is also very close together with 30 in 2009 and 29 this year as is the median list price on those new escrows with $399,000 in 2009 and $419,000 this year.

Analysis

In comparing June 2009 to June 2010, the number of house/PUD sales is nearly the same with 85 in 2009 and 81 in 2010.  The median sales price has gone up substantially from about $795,000 in 2009 to $915,000 this year.  The number of new escrows is also up from 84 in June 2009 to over 100 in 2010.  The median list price on these newly opened escrows is up a bit from $829,000 in June 2009 to $885,000 in June 2010.  With the number of sales remaining in the mid-80´s for June, the market is looking healthier than it did in 2009, especially when you consider the over 100 new escrows opened in June.  For the first six months of both years, the median sales price is up slightly from $830,000 in 2009 to about $860,000 this year.

The condominium inventory came up slightly in June 2010 with 147 available properties and 55 new listings with a median list price of approximately $480,000, which is very close to the median sales price of approximately $440,000.  In June 2009 there were 43 sales compared to 33 in June 2010 while the median sales price has remained fairly stable at $455,000.  During the first six months of 2009 there were 130 sales compared to 168 in 2010.  The median sales price is down from $467,500 in 2009 to $440,000 in 2010.  While the new escrows are not piling up, the number of sales has remained static.  Without an expanding inventory, this is to be expected.  During the first six months of both years, the median sales price is down from $467,500 in 2009 to $437,000 this year.

Are property prices all going up?  In all areas of the South Coast, except for Goleta South, the median prices for home/PUD´s are up from 2009.  While most economists feel the recession is technically over, many buyers are still not convinced.  The Santa Barbara South Coast is now holding its own when it comes to real estate values and doing better than many other areas in California or the nation.  Mortgage interest rates are now as low as they have ever been.  Without a major disruption in the world, California or national economy, I feel there is a pent-up demand for housing that is just beginning to be satisfied.  There is still a lot of price flexibility for a buyer in the higher-end home/PUD and condominium value ranges, while values in the lower price ranges have solidified and in most cases are on the rise.

Contact me with any questions,

Stan

Stan Tabler

Coldwell Banker

3938 State Street

Santa Barbara, CA  93105

Stan@StanTabler.com

(805) 563-7261

Broker´s License #00774377 since 1980